基于BAMP估测GMP医药项目资本成本的研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 22:45

本文选题：BAPM + 医药项目　；参考：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：资本成本作为公司进行项目投资决策收益率的切割线，直接关系到项目投资是否进行，是项目投资的难点和重点。EH公司投资者在即将进行的GMP项目投资决策时就遇到了如何确定项目资本成本的问题。而EH公司现有方法均不能正确估测资本成本，究其原因是EH公司投资者对资本成本的概念不清导致的方法误用。基于此，本文首先对GMP项目与其资本成本的影响因素进行分析，通过比较测算项目资本成本的几种方法，说明应用BAPM的合理性，并梳理出应用BAPM测算GMP资本成本的步骤，明确了本文的主线；然后构建两组动量组合，分别与可比公司收益率进行回归与拟合度比较，选定一组动量组合拟合出的方程的斜率作为可比公司的权益贝塔；通过权益贝塔与经营贝塔的转换公式，将权益贝塔卸载财务杠杆得到可比公司经营贝塔，其算术平均值便是GMP项目的项目贝塔，代入BAPM，可得到GMP项目的资本成本；最后对计算结果进行分析，说明应用BAPM的必要性。本文得到以下结论：对EH企业的访谈与分析，了解到EH决策者在日常投资决策中存在资本成本使用过程中的非理性行为，导致资本成本计算不正确，影响项目决策的结果；因市场并非有效，CAPM不适用于测算GMP项目的资本成本，应该使用BAPM；动量组合参数的选取时，应以拟合度较优作为标准；计算得出GMP项目贝塔值为0.5213，，GMP项目的资本成本为8.08%。本文的研究成果主要为EH公司GMP项目决策提供参考，同时对其他公司投资中成药行业也有一定借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:As the cutting line of the company's investment decision rate, the cost of capital is directly related to whether the project investment is carried out or not. EH investors have encountered the problem of how to determine the project capital cost in the upcoming GMP project investment decision. However, the existing methods of EH Company can not estimate the cost of capital correctly, which is due to the misapplication of the method caused by the unclear concept of the cost of capital among the investors of EH Company. Based on this, this paper first analyzes the influencing factors of GMP project and its capital cost, and explains the reasonableness of applying BAPM through comparing several methods of calculating project capital cost, and combs out the steps of applying BAPM to measure GMP capital cost. Secondly, two groups of momentum combinations are constructed, which are compared with the comparable company returns, and the slope of the equation fitted by a group of momentum combinations is selected as the equity beta of the comparable company. Through the conversion formula between the equity beta and the management beta, the equity beta offload the financial lever to get the comparable company operating beta. The arithmetic average value is the GMP project beta, and the capital cost of GMP project can be obtained by replacing it with BAPM. Finally, the calculation results are analyzed and the necessity of applying BAPM is explained. The conclusions are as follows: the interview and analysis of EH enterprises show that the irrationality behavior of EH decision makers in the process of using capital cost in their daily investment decision makes the calculation of capital cost incorrect and affects the result of project decision. Because the market is not effective, CAPM is not suitable for calculating the capital cost of GMP project, so BAPM should be used. When choosing the parameter of momentum combination, the fitting degree should be taken as the criterion, and the capital cost of GMP project Beta value is 0.5213g / GMP project is 8.08. The research results of this paper mainly provide reference for GMP project decision of EH company, and also can be used for reference for other companies to invest in Chinese patent medicine industry.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F234.2;F426.72;F406.7

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