基于经济增加值（EVA）方法的白酒上市公司估值

发布时间：2018-07-29 14:22

【摘要】：在我国特定的资本市场环境以及会计制度下,会计利润在很多情况下不能反映出公司的内在价值,因而本文希望通过对EVA的研究,来衡量上市公司的内在价值。本文先介绍了常见的估值方法及其适用性,然后介绍了经济增加值(EVA)的发展和应用及其估值方法。在将财务计算的方法应用到白酒企业之前,本文还从经济学和管理学的视角对白酒企业的需求结构,上下游生态,竞争格局,以及环境进行了分析,挖掘出了影响白酒企业增长的各种驱动力,并通过对外围环境演进的预测,预测出这些驱动力加强或者减弱的情况。随后,本文根据各公司财务报表,计算出了11家白酒上市公司历年EVA的数值。在此基础上,用三阶段增长模型估算了未来年份的EVA,并折现到现在,从而估算出6家上市公司的内在价值。总体来说,这6家上市公司的内在价值略高于2011年末市场给予的总市值。本文还认为未来十年白酒企业将会放缓增长势头(但是和其他行业相比依然较快),并在长期和远期维持一个较为缓慢的增长。
[Abstract]:Under the specific capital market environment and accounting system in our country, the accounting profit can not reflect the intrinsic value of the company under many circumstances, so this paper hopes to measure the intrinsic value of the listed company through the study of EVA. This paper first introduces the common valuation methods and their applicability, then introduces the development and application of (EVA) and its valuation method. Before applying the financial calculation method to liquor enterprises, this paper also analyzes the demand structure, upstream and downstream ecology, competition pattern and environment of liquor enterprises from the perspective of economics and management. Various driving forces affecting the growth of liquor enterprises were excavated and the situation of strengthening or weakening of these driving forces was predicted by forecasting the evolution of peripheral environment. Then, according to the financial statements of each company, the EVA values of 11 listed liquor companies are calculated. On this basis, the EVAs of the future year are estimated by using the three-stage growth model, and are discounted to the present, thus the intrinsic value of the six listed companies is estimated. Overall, the intrinsic value of these six listed companies is slightly higher than the total market value given by the market at the end of 2011. The paper also believes that liquor companies will slow down growth in the next decade (but still faster than other industries) and maintain a slower growth in the long run and in the long run.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.82;F224

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