滨州港液体化工码头投资风险评价研究
发布时间：2018-08-12 19:52
【摘要】：改革开放后，伴随外向型经济的快速发展以及国家政策的大力支持，我国港口发展取得较大进步，港口投资建设步伐不断加快，港口数量和规模不断扩大，带动港口城市经济的快速发展。面对港口竞争程度日益激烈以及竞争层次不断提升，专业化码头投资建设已经成为提升中小型港口竞争力、降低物流成本的重要途径。液体化工码头投资建设是一项复杂的系统工程，不仅具备港口码头投资的影响因素多、建设周期长、资金投入大以及投资回收期长等特征，还因液体化工品自身属性特征，液体化工码头投资建设还应具备专用性、风险性等市场属性特征，投资风险评价成为液体化工码头规划建设重要研究问题。 本文以滨州港液体化工码头的投资风险评价为主要研究内容，首先确立滨州港液体化工码头投资风险评价的理论依据，提出液体化工码头投资的特殊性，并据此研究滨州港液体化工码头的建设内容与规模、区位条件、竞争条件、需求预测与趋势、财务分析与经济效益等建设发展环境，论证滨州港液体化工码头建设的现实可行性。其次，结合液体化工码头的属性特征，，明确滨州港液体化工码头的主要投资风险因素，通过构建相应的投资风险评价指标体系并采用Bayes网络的方法，对滨州港液体化工码头各风险因素以及整体投资风险的风险值进行定量测度。同时依据投资风险评价结果，借助因果分析法，对各投资风险因素提出相应的防范建议与应对策略。最后，总结本文研究所得到的结论以及研究不足，并指出今后研究方向。 论文创新之处主要有以下两个方面：第一，结合液体化工码头投资的特殊性，明确了滨州港液体化工码头主要投资风险因素，并据此建立了滨州港液体化工码头投资风险评价指标体系；第二，将Bayes网络方法引入到滨州港液体化工码头投资风险评价的模型中，定量计算了滨州港液体化工码头投资风险的风险值。 滨州港液体化工码头投资风险评价研究，不仅对滨州港液体化工码头投资决策有着重大指导意义；同时也建立了液体化工码头投资风险评价指标体系以及风险度量模型，完善了中小型港口液体化工码头相关的理论研究。
[Abstract]:After reform and opening up, with the rapid development of export-oriented economy and the support of national policies, China's port development has made great progress, the pace of port investment and construction has been accelerated, the number and scale of ports have been continuously expanded. Drive the rapid development of port city economy. In the face of the increasingly fierce competition of ports and the continuous upgrading of the level of competition, the construction of specialized wharf investment has become an important way to enhance the competitiveness of small and medium-sized ports and reduce logistics costs. The investment construction of liquid chemical wharf is a complex system engineering. It not only has the characteristics of many influencing factors of port wharf investment, long construction period, large capital investment and long payback period of investment, but also because of the properties of liquid chemical products. The investment and construction of liquid chemical wharf should also have the characteristics of market attributes such as specificity and risk. Investment risk evaluation has become an important research problem in the planning and construction of liquid chemical wharf. In this paper, the investment risk assessment of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is taken as the main research content. Firstly, the theoretical basis for investment risk assessment of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is established, and the particularity of investment in liquid chemical wharf is put forward. Based on this, the construction content and scale, location condition, competition condition, demand forecast and trend, financial analysis and economic benefit of Binzhou Port liquid Chemical Wharf are studied. To demonstrate the practical feasibility of the construction of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port. Secondly, the main investment risk factors of the liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port are defined by combining the attribute characteristics of the liquid chemical wharf, and the corresponding investment risk evaluation index system is constructed and the method of Bayes network is adopted. The risk factors of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port and the risk value of the whole investment risk are quantitatively measured. At the same time, according to the result of investment risk evaluation and with the aid of causality analysis, this paper puts forward the corresponding preventive suggestions and countermeasures for each investment risk factor. Finally, the conclusion of this paper and the lack of research are summarized, and the future research direction is pointed out. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, considering the particularity of liquid chemical wharf investment, the main investment risk factors of Binzhou Port liquid Chemical Wharf are defined. Based on this, the investment risk evaluation index system of Binzhou liquid chemical wharf is established. Secondly, the Bayes network method is introduced into the investment risk evaluation model of Binzhou liquid chemical wharf. The risk value of investment risk of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is calculated quantitatively. The research on investment risk evaluation of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is not only of great guiding significance to the investment decision of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port, but also establishes the investment risk evaluation index system and risk measurement model of liquid chemical wharf. Improved the medium and small port liquid chemical wharf related theoretical research.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F552;F550.66
本文编号：2180179
[Abstract]:After reform and opening up, with the rapid development of export-oriented economy and the support of national policies, China's port development has made great progress, the pace of port investment and construction has been accelerated, the number and scale of ports have been continuously expanded. Drive the rapid development of port city economy. In the face of the increasingly fierce competition of ports and the continuous upgrading of the level of competition, the construction of specialized wharf investment has become an important way to enhance the competitiveness of small and medium-sized ports and reduce logistics costs. The investment construction of liquid chemical wharf is a complex system engineering. It not only has the characteristics of many influencing factors of port wharf investment, long construction period, large capital investment and long payback period of investment, but also because of the properties of liquid chemical products. The investment and construction of liquid chemical wharf should also have the characteristics of market attributes such as specificity and risk. Investment risk evaluation has become an important research problem in the planning and construction of liquid chemical wharf. In this paper, the investment risk assessment of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is taken as the main research content. Firstly, the theoretical basis for investment risk assessment of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is established, and the particularity of investment in liquid chemical wharf is put forward. Based on this, the construction content and scale, location condition, competition condition, demand forecast and trend, financial analysis and economic benefit of Binzhou Port liquid Chemical Wharf are studied. To demonstrate the practical feasibility of the construction of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port. Secondly, the main investment risk factors of the liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port are defined by combining the attribute characteristics of the liquid chemical wharf, and the corresponding investment risk evaluation index system is constructed and the method of Bayes network is adopted. The risk factors of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port and the risk value of the whole investment risk are quantitatively measured. At the same time, according to the result of investment risk evaluation and with the aid of causality analysis, this paper puts forward the corresponding preventive suggestions and countermeasures for each investment risk factor. Finally, the conclusion of this paper and the lack of research are summarized, and the future research direction is pointed out. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, considering the particularity of liquid chemical wharf investment, the main investment risk factors of Binzhou Port liquid Chemical Wharf are defined. Based on this, the investment risk evaluation index system of Binzhou liquid chemical wharf is established. Secondly, the Bayes network method is introduced into the investment risk evaluation model of Binzhou liquid chemical wharf. The risk value of investment risk of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is calculated quantitatively. The research on investment risk evaluation of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is not only of great guiding significance to the investment decision of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port, but also establishes the investment risk evaluation index system and risk measurement model of liquid chemical wharf. Improved the medium and small port liquid chemical wharf related theoretical research.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F552;F550.66
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