三亚鹿回头湾帆船港建设项目投资风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 20:44

本文关键词：三亚鹿回头湾帆船港建设项目投资风险评估研究　出处：《中国海洋大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济一体化的迅猛发展，旅游成为全球最大的产业和发展最快的新兴产业之一，旅游业也成为我国国民经济的重要支柱之一，旅游项目的大量上马，相互竞争局势愈演愈烈，过度热衷于高收益、高回报类别项目的投资建设，企业往往忽略了项目投资风险方面的评估预测，近几年来已显现出投资规模过大、资源开发利用水平偏低等问题。探索建立旅游项目风险评估指标体系，选取合理的评估方法，开展风险评估研究对企业更好的制定投资决策，降低投资盲目性，有效提升企业的经济效益水平具有积极的作用。我国现有旅游项目风险评估成果多为针对单一方面或某些方面开展分析，更多停留在理论研究，或单一项目特定性分析，未进行全过程的风险研究，评估指标体系和研究方法缺乏普遍适用性。因此，要广泛开展旅游项目风险评估，就需要全面完善旅游项目风险评估体系，在秉承项目风险评估基础理论的前提下，针对性的研究旅游项目关键问题、运行环境、风险评估，进而从项目开发之初就采取相关对策降低或规避风险。论文第一章从帆船港游艇码头建设的研究背景和意义入手，阐述旅游项目评估国内外研究现状，介绍本文所采用的研究方法与基本框架，然后以此框架为本文叙述的主线索，进行深入的研究、分析与探索。第二章进行项目评估基本理论研究。介绍了项目风险评估的内涵、意义和概念，同时介绍了项目风险评研究的基本内容与工作程序。第三章分析了旅游项目评估研究中的关键问题。介绍了旅游项目的市场定位，具体包括旅游项目市场定位的程序与内容、基本原则，以及评估方法。第四章以三亚鹿回头湾帆船港游艇基地工程项目为例，，投资评估分析。详细介绍了三亚鹿回头湾帆船游艇基地工程项目的概况、投资环境及市场。运用SWOT分析项目的优势、劣势、机会和威胁，并根据以上分析对该项目的策划进行定位，分析其盈利能力、财务和经济评价，以及项目安全和环境评价。第五章研究建立了风险评估指标体系，应用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法对该工程项目进行了综合的风险评估。第六章根据相关理论方法，以及指标与风险评估结果，分析了项目的潜在风险，并提出相应的风险防范对策建议。论文通过基础理论研究，构建了旅游项目风险评估指标体系，应用模糊综合评价法对三亚鹿回头湾帆船游艇基地工程进行风险评估，最终确定项目风险水平一般。结论指出目前国内游艇及帆船运动尚处于初级阶段，真正意义上高端的、能够形成规模效应、能够进行成熟运作的游艇会尚未出现。建议项目将建立高端游艇会作为发展方向，并对其建设运行整体过程提出应对措施规避风险。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global economic integration, tourism has become one of the emerging industries and development of the world's largest and fastest, tourism has become an important pillar of our national economy, launched a large number of tourism projects, the situation of mutual competition intensified, too keen on high yield, highreturn of construction project investment, enterprises tend to ignore the evaluation of project investment risk prediction in recent years have been showing excessive investment scale, low level of development and utilization of resources and other issues. To explore the establishment of tourism project risk assessment index system, assessment method of reasonable selection, carry out risk assessment research on enterprises to make better investment decisions, reduce the blindness of investment, improve the economic level of the enterprise has a positive effect. The risk assessment results of existing tourism projects in China is for a single aspect or some aspects of conduct Of more stay in theoretical research, analysis or a single specific risk has not been studied in the whole process, the evaluation index system and the method of the lack of general applicability. Therefore, to carry out a wide range of risk assessment of tourism projects, requires a comprehensive tourism project risk assessment system, in the premise of adhering to the basic theory of project risk assessment next, aiming at the key problems of the tourism project of the operating environment, risk assessment, and from the beginning of the project will take appropriate measures to reduce or avoid risks.
The first chapter of this thesis starts from the yacht harbor Marina construction background and significance of the research, it explained the research status at home and abroad tourism projects, introduces the research methods used in this paper and the basic framework, then the framework for this paper describes the main clue, in-depth research, analysis and exploration. The second chapter research on the basic theory of project evaluation. This paper introduces the connotation of project risk assessment, meaning and concept, and introduces the basic contents and procedures of risk assessment project. The third chapter analyzes the key problems of the evaluation of tourism projects. The tourism market positioning, including the basic principles of tourism market positioning project program and content, and assessment methods. The fourth chapter takes Sanya Luhuitou Bay sailing harbor yacht base project as an example, the evaluation of investment analysis. Introduced Sanya Luhuitou Bay sailing yacht base Overview of the project, the investment environment and market. By using the SWOT analysis project advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats, and according to the above analysis of the project planning positioning, analysis of its profitability, financial and economic evaluation, and project safety and environmental assessment. The fifth chapter studies to establish a risk evaluation index system, analytic hierarchy process the analysis method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the comprehensive evaluation on the project. The sixth chapter according to the related theories and methods, index and risk assessment results, analyze the potential risk of the project, and put forward the corresponding risk prevention measures.
This paper through the study of basic theory, constructs tourism project risk assessment index system for risk assessment of Sanya Luhuitou Bay Yacht base project using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and ultimately determine the general level of project risk. The conclusion pointed out that the current domestic yachts and sailing is still in the initial stage, the true sense of the high-end, to form the scale effect, to mature operation of the yacht club has yet to emerge. The proposed project will build high-end yacht club as the direction of development, and put forward the corresponding measures to avoid the risk of the construction and operation of the whole process.

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7

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