锡林浩特市二环路交通量预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 22:24

本文关键词：锡林浩特市二环路交通量预测研究　出处：《吉林大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于近几年经济的发展，人口的大规模集聚，锡林浩特市的城市规模进一步扩大。城市新区建设已经开始，为了保证城市新区的建设有序发展，便于各企事业单位及居民在新区的建设使用，锡林浩特市人民政府决定对锡林浩特市二环路进行建设，为使道路设计方案更加符合实际，必须对未来年二环路交通量的增长趋势和发展进行预测。为适应锡林浩特市经济社会快速发展的要求，本文从实际出发，首先对项目所在区域锡林浩特市的概况进行了全面的分析,包括锡林浩特市的历史沿革、区域位置、行政区划、地理概况和自然资源；对锡林浩特市二环路交通量预测模型进行分析，即“四阶段法”,分别为出行发生与吸引、出行分布、交通方式划分和交通分配。四个阶段分别采用类型分析法、双约束重力模型、转移曲线模型和随机均衡分配模型进行预测；分析锡林浩特市经济发展现状，选取二阶指数平滑模型、三阶指数平滑模型对国内生产总值进行分别预测，取他们的平均值作为预测值；对锡林浩特市人口进行分析，并采用线性回归模型和指数模型对其进行预测，预测结果表明，锡林浩特市人口在未来年将稳定增长。最后对锡林浩特市二环路交通量进行预测。首先确定预测目标年、预测内容及其使用的预测方法，并根据现状调查的交通结构预测未来年项目所在区域各交通方式比例；然后应用四阶段法分别预测二环路区内交通量和过境交通量，最终得到二环路交通量预测结果。根据预测结果对二环路服务水平进行预测。通过对道路基本通行能力、可能通行能力和设计通行能力进行分析，，建立了相关的计算模型；根据设计通行能力和前面预测的各路段高峰小时交通量，预测锡林浩特市二环路服务水平，并据此为道路设计方案提供了科学建议。
[Abstract]:As a result of the economic development in recent years and the large-scale population agglomeration, the city scale of Xilinhaote has further expanded. The construction of the new urban area has already begun, in order to ensure the orderly development of the construction of the new urban district. To facilitate the construction and use of enterprises, institutions and residents in the new district, the people's Government of Xilinhaote decided to build the second Ring Road in Xilinhaote, in order to make the road design more realistic. It is necessary to forecast the growth trend and development of the traffic volume of the second Ring Road in the future. In order to meet the requirements of rapid economic and social development in Xilinhot, this paper starts from the reality, first of all, the general situation of Xilinhot city, including the history of Xilinhot city, is comprehensively analyzed. Regional location, administrative divisions, geographical profiles and natural resources; This paper analyzes the traffic volume prediction model of the second Ring Road in Xilinhaote, namely "four-stage method", which is the travel occurrence and attraction, and the travel distribution respectively. The four stages are predicted by type analysis method, double constraint gravity model, transfer curve model and stochastic equilibrium allocation model. The second order exponential smoothing model and the third order exponential smoothing model are selected to forecast the GDP respectively, and their average value is taken as the forecast value. The population of Xilinhot city is analyzed and predicted by linear regression model and exponential model. The result shows that the population of Xilinhot city will increase steadily in the coming year. Finally, the traffic volume of the second Ring Road in Xilinhaote City is forecasted. First, the forecast target year, the forecast content and the forecast method are determined. And according to the current situation of the traffic structure of the project in the next year to predict the proportion of transport modes in the region; Then the four-stage method is used to predict the traffic volume and the transit traffic volume in the second ring road area respectively. Finally, the traffic volume prediction results of the second ring road are obtained. According to the forecast results, the service level of the second ring road is forecasted. Through the analysis of the basic capacity of the road, the possible capacity and the design capacity. The related calculation model is established. According to the designed capacity and the peak hour traffic volume of each section, the service level of the second Ring Road in Xilinhot City is forecasted, and the scientific suggestions for the road design scheme are provided.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7

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