湖南省森林公园旅游收入动态分析与预测

发布时间：2018-03-07 05:14

本文选题：森林公园　切入点：旅游收入　出处：《中南林业科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国森林公园经过30多年的发展,已成为林业转型升级、资源环境保护、生态文明建设和推进绿色化发展的重要阵地,发展森林旅游产业是林区群众脱贫致富,缩小区域发展差距,促进经济社会可持续发展的有效路径。2013年全国共有森林公园2948处,经营总面积1758万余公顷,接待游客5.89亿人次,旅游收入491.1亿元,创造社会综合产值超4700亿元,良好的生态、社会和经济效益凸显。本研究以森林旅游学、区域经济学、应用数学等学科理论为指导,综合运用对比分析、偏离-份额分析及灰色-马尔科夫预测等方法,对湖南省森林公园旅游产业发展及其收入进行动态分析和预测。简要梳理了国内外关于森林公园建设与研究进展情况,并阐述了相关理论方法及其应用；回顾了湖南省森林公园建设与森林旅游产业的状况,系统分析了全省森林公园2004-2013年旅游收入情况,对其在全国森林公园经营建设的地位、贡献等做出了客观评析；运用偏离-份额分析法的传统静态模型和动态模型,就全省森林公园旅游产业2009-2013年建设与发展状况进行理性分析评价,基于灰色-马尔科夫模型对全省森林公园旅游收入做出预测,进而探析全省森林公园旅游业发展趋势及产业结构调整方向,有针对性地提出对策和建议,为实现湖南省森林公园旅游产业可持续发展提供理论依据与决策参考。本研究主要结论是：2004-2013年间,湖南省森林公园旅游收入整体稳中有增,居全国相对领先地位但发展速度略低于全国水平,在全国森林公园旅游总收入中所占比重在3.28%-6.39%间浮动,贡献度有待提升；2009-2013年湖南省森林公园旅游收入以观光旅游和门票收入为主,与全国相对增长率L=1.53大于1,结构效果指数W=0.98略小于1,同时小于相对增长率L和竞争力效果指数U,总竞争力偏离分量Di等于51608.75,数值较大且竞争力效果指数U=1.56,同样大于1,表明考察期内全省森林公园旅游收入普遍呈增长态势,在份额和竞争力上具有一定优势,但产业发展处于初级阶段,新兴产业比重小,产业结构亟需优化升级；产业内部食宿行业与娱乐业的发展水平较低,竞争处劣势地位；与森林旅游产业关联紧密的其它行业在份额、结构、优势等方面相对保持较大优势,但竞争力有待提升；全省森林公园旅游收入在未来10年将保持积极稳健的上升趋势,预计在2023逼近300亿元关口。结合分析结果,提出在推动全省森林公园旅游产业发展进程中,因地制宜地开发以休闲度假、运动康体与田园体验等为特色的森林旅游是发展方向,优化产业结构、健全森林旅游产品体系、推动产业链延伸、整合资源打造品牌、提升经营管理水平是实现路径。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of development, forest parks in China have become an important position for forestry transformation and upgrading, protection of resources and environment, construction of ecological civilization and promotion of green development. The development of forest tourism industry is an important position for the people in forest areas to get rid of poverty and become rich. In 2013, there were 2,948 forest parks throughout the country, with a total operating area of more than 17.58 million hectares, receiving 589 million tourists and earning 49.11 billion yuan. This research is guided by the theories of forest tourism, regional economics, applied mathematics and so on. Based on the methods of deviation-share analysis and gray-Markov forecast, this paper makes a dynamic analysis and prediction on the development and income of forest park tourism industry in Hunan Province, and briefly reviews the progress of forest park construction and research both at home and abroad. This paper also expounds the related theories and methods and their applications, reviews the situation of forest park construction and forest tourism industry in Hunan Province, systematically analyzes the tourism income of forest parks in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2013, and gives a detailed analysis of the status of forest park management and construction in the whole country. Using the traditional static model and dynamic model of deviation-share analysis, this paper makes a rational analysis and evaluation on the construction and development of forest park tourism industry in the province from 2009 to 2013. Based on the grey-Markov model, this paper forecasts the tourism income of forest parks in the province, and then analyzes the development trend and industrial structure adjustment direction of the forest park tourism in the province, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. In order to realize the sustainable development of Hunan forest park tourism industry, the main conclusion of this study is that the tourism income of Hunan forest park increased steadily from 2004 to 2013. Occupying a relatively leading position in the country, but the speed of development is slightly lower than the national level, the proportion of the total tourism income of the national forest parks fluctuates between 3.28-6.39%. The tourism revenue of Hunan Forest Park in 2009-2013 is mainly tourism and ticket income. Compared with the national relative growth rate L _ (1.53) > 1, the structural effect index W _ (0.98) less than 1, and the relative growth rate L and the competitiveness effect index U, the deviation component of the total competitiveness is equal to 51608.75, and the value is larger and the competitiveness effect index U _ (1) is 1.56. During the inspection period, the tourism income of forest parks in the whole province generally showed an increasing trend. Share and competitiveness have some advantages, but the industrial development is in the primary stage, the proportion of emerging industries is small, the industrial structure needs to be optimized and upgraded, the development level of the industry interior accommodation industry and entertainment industry is low, the competitive position is inferior; Other industries closely related to the forest tourism industry have relatively large advantages in share, structure, advantage, etc, but their competitiveness needs to be improved. The tourism income of forest parks in the whole province will maintain a positive and steady upward trend in the next 10 years. It is expected to approach the 30 billion yuan mark at 2023. Combined with the analysis results, it is proposed that in the process of promoting the development of the tourism industry in the forest parks in the whole province, the development of forest tourism, characterized by leisure vacation, sports, sports, sports and pastoral experience, is the development direction in the process of promoting the development of the tourism industry in the forest parks of the whole province. Optimizing the industrial structure, perfecting the forest tourism product system, promoting the extension of the industrial chain, integrating the resources to create the brand, and improving the management level are the ways to realize.
【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F592.7

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