基于Logistic曲线预测模型的京津冀区域旅游竞合研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 02:04

本文选题：Logistic曲线　切入点：旅游竞合　出处：《燕山大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着长三角地区和珠三角地区旅游业的崛起，京津冀区域已经成为全国旅游经济的第三个增长极。京津冀区域政府也意识到了旅游竞合的重要性，召开会议共同协商区域旅游竞合的发展，但是目前京津冀区域旅游合作大多停留在口号上，出现竞争和管理无序，重复建设、资源浪费等现象。因此有必要对京津冀区域旅游竞合进行研究，，实现京津冀区域旅游竞合的健康发展，提高区域旅游整体实力和综合竞争力，从而提高京津冀区域旅游的整体经济效益。本文以京津冀区域旅游为研究对象，运用旅游地生命周期理论、系统论、增长极理论、共生理论等相关理论，分析了京津冀区域旅游竞合的条件、竞合发展现状以及京津冀区域旅游竞合的制约因素，选取旅游收入(国际、国内)、旅游者人数(国际、国内)、旅行社单位数、星级饭店单位数和A级旅游景区单位数为研究指标，运用Logistic曲线预测模型，对京津冀区域旅游经济发展趋势进行预测，测算出“十二五”期间(2011-2015年)京津冀区域旅游经济增长数据，在此基础上分别对京津冀区域三个单体的行业实力、旅游发展潜力、旅游企业实力进行了量化比较分析，确定了京津冀区域旅游发展战略，形成了“四圈”联动一体化发展的格局，并提出了相应发展对策，为实现京津冀区域“无障碍”旅游，达到一体化共生的发展目标奠定理论基础。
[Abstract]:With the rise of tourism in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become the third growth pole of the national tourism economy. The government of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has also realized the importance of tourism competition. Holding meetings to jointly discuss the development of regional tourism competition and cooperation, but at present, most of the regional tourism cooperation between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei remains on slogans, with competition and management disorderly and repeated construction. Therefore, it is necessary to study the tourism competition and cooperation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, to realize the healthy development of the tourism competition in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and to improve the overall strength and comprehensive competitiveness of the regional tourism. So as to improve the overall economic benefits of tourism in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. This paper takes the tourism of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object, and analyzes the conditions of tourism competition in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by using the theories of tourism destination life cycle theory, system theory, growth pole theory, symbiosis theory and so on. The current situation of competition and development and the restrictive factors of tourism competition in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and select the tourism income (international, domestic, tourist number (international, domestic, travel agency unit number), The number of star-rated hotels and the number of units of A-grade tourist attractions are used as the research indexes, and the forecast model of Logistic curve is used to predict the development trend of tourism economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper calculates the economic growth data of tourism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015). On this basis, the paper makes a quantitative comparative analysis of the industry strength, tourism development potential and tourism enterprise strength of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper determines the tourism development strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, forms the pattern of "four circles" linkage development, and puts forward the corresponding development countermeasures, in order to realize the "barrier-free" tourism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. To achieve the development goal of integration symbiosis lay a theoretical foundation.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7;F224

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