我国宏观经济因素对旅游业发展影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-14 09:01

本文选题：旅游业 + 协整检验　；参考：《统计与决策》2013年08期

【摘要】：文章基于1985~2011年湖北省旅游业发展相关统计数据,运用协整理论和ECM模型分析方法,对影响湖北省旅游业发展的外生经济因素进行实证分析。结论有:湖北省旅游总收入与人均GDP、国民平均收入、旅游总人数、客运总量之间存在协整关系;Granger因果检验表明,湖北省旅游总收入与人均GDP、旅游总人数存在双向的因果关系,旅游总收入与全国人均收入、客运总量存在单向的因果关系;湖北省旅游总收入与人均GDP、旅游总人数之间存在长期均衡和短期波动关系。结论证明了经济发展水平对旅游业的发展起决定性作用。在此基础上,提出加快发展经济、发挥交通优势、突出旅游宣传、强化旅游保障等发展湖北省旅游业的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data of tourism development in Hubei Province from 1985 to 2011, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the exogenous economic factors that affect the development of tourism industry in Hubei Province by using co-integration theory and ECM model analysis method.The conclusions are as follows: there is a cointegration relationship between total tourism income and per capita GDP, average national income, total number of tourism and total passenger transport in Hubei Province. Granger causality test shows that there is a two-way causal relationship between total tourism income and per capita GDP and total number of tourism in Hubei Province.There is a one-way causality relationship between total tourism income and per capita income and total passenger transport, and there is a long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship between total tourism income and GDP per capita and total number of tourists in Hubei Province.The conclusion proves that the level of economic development plays a decisive role in the development of tourism.On this basis, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the development of Hubei Province's tourism industry, such as speeding up the development of economy, giving play to the advantages of transportation, highlighting the tourism propaganda, and strengthening the tourism guarantee.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学新闻与文化传播学院;
【分类号】：F224;F124;F592

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