交通系统要素变动下的旅游流时空响应

发布时间：2018-06-13 11:43

  本文选题：旅游交通 + 旅游流　； 参考：《南京大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：交通作为旅游目的地发展的重要因素和一个国家或地区发展旅游业的先决条件之一已经得到了学者们的广泛认同。旅游交通作为一个交叉学科的热点问题越来越受到来自国内外相关领域学者的关注,交通系统对旅游的影响研究作为旅游交通中的重要的研究方向也逐步成为当前旅游研究中的焦点和热点问题之一。本研究选择2002-2007年国内农村居民旅游抽样调查中的省际旅游对流和2005-2007年江苏省国内旅游抽样调查资料原始资料为基本数据资料,综合运用面板数据引力模型、工具变量法、扩散角度与距离计算以及联立方程模型等多种实证研究方法,探讨交通系统对省际旅游对流和省内扩散流的影响作用和方式,并根据分析结果结合当前中国综合交通网络过度建设对旅游带来的负面影响提出相应的建设性的对策和措施,其意义在于:从不同空间尺度实证探讨交通系统对旅游的影响,关注旅游交通系统中的内生性问题,有效评估交通对旅游的影响。从理论研究框架和研究方法上,基于空间相互作用构建的面板数据引力模型的工具变量估计形式以及基于旅游流空间扩散状态构建的旅游流扩散指标将有效拓展旅游交通研究及相关领域的定量研究方法。全文共分四个部分:第一部分为研究意义部分,具体阐明本研究的背景、意义、内容、方法和技术路线。论述了旅游交通研究理论和实践两个层面的研究背景,指出了本研究的研究意义,对本研究的研究内容、框架和技术路线进行了完备的介绍。第二部分为理论基础与方法部分,包括第二章和第三章内容。第二章对当前国内外旅游交通研究进行了系统性梳理并进行总结为本研究的创新性打好基础。研究利用引文时序理论对旅游交通的区域影响、区域特征以及旅游者交通方式选择和空间行为模式研究进行了总结归纳,同时也对国内研究进展进行了概述。第三章介绍了本文研究的理论基础和分析方法,包括范式基础与旅游交通系统研究框架下的范式选择,引力模型理论,面板数据模型以及区域旅游扩散的度量,为本研究第三部分的经验研究提供基础。第三部分为实证研究部分,包括第四、五、六、七章,是本文的主体内容。首先就交通基础设施建设对省际旅游流时空变动的影响进行了研究。研究构建了区域发展与旅游政策指数作为工具变量,采用工具变量法面板数据引力模型分析了交通基础设施密度对省际旅游对流的影响。发现目的地交通基础设施密度的增长促进了目的地旅游流的增长。研究还以旅游流的目的地和客源地省份将面板数据集分为东部、中部、西部分别进行工具变量法的随机效应模型构建发现东、中、西地区的入游和出游旅游流影响因素存在一定差异。研究采用省内旅游流虚拟变量的反对数形式表示省内旅游选择偏好效应,发现交通基础设施的改善可以有效改善省内旅游选择偏好效应,意味着交通基础设施改善可以促进省际旅游流流动,促进宏观大区域范围的旅游业良效可持续发展。其次展开交通系统对省内入游流扩散影响的研究,以江苏省作为案例地。研究发现江苏省省内交通系统要素的变动对入游的客运整体结构影响不大,但对各地市的入游客运交通方式结构有一定的影响,该影响与地市自身及周边地区交通系统要素变动有关。采用距离与角度双指标扩散指数对江苏省省内多目的地旅游扩散流进行了描述分析,发现交通系统各要素对各地市的旅游流扩散有影响。高速公路建设中的重大工程的建成通车对省内扩散流的时空变动影响显著,重要高速公路路段的铺设有效的引导了沿线地市的省内扩散流方向。除交通线路要素影响外,铁路站点和班次的设置、长途客运班次的调整和铁路提速等旅游交通系统中的节点要素、交通方式要素和交通技术要素等都对旅游流的扩散产生了一定的影响。研究还发现交通方式对旅游流的扩散方向和距离存在影响,扩散角度对扩散距离也存在一定影响,这两种影响均存在地区差异。最后本研究分析了中国综合交通过度建设对旅游发展产生了的负向影响,针对这些负向影响研究提出了相应的政策建议。第四部分为本文研究的结论、创新点以及今后的努力方向。研究在以下三个方面取得一定的进展:首先从空间上分尺度的研究为旅游交通的区域影响研究提供了全新的研究视角与分析框架;其次通过工具变量法面板数据模型、距离与角度双指标扩散指数验证了交通对旅游流的影响,拓展了旅游交通的研究方法;最后从实证层面分析了交通系统对省际和省内旅游流时空变动的影响,交通系统提升有助于促进旅游流省际流动、对省内扩散存在影响且该影响存在空间分异。未来可以在时间延续、负面影响实证研究以及微观个体尺度进行更进一步的研究。
[Abstract]:As one of the important factors for the development of tourist destinations and one of the prerequisites for the development of tourism in a country or region, traffic has been widely recognized by scholars. Tourism transportation, as a hot issue in a cross discipline, is becoming more and more popular with scholars at home and abroad. The important research direction in tourism transportation has gradually become one of the focus and hot issues in the current tourism research. This study chooses 2002-2007 years of domestic tourism sampling survey in China's rural residents' tourism sampling survey and 2005-2007 years of Jiangsu province domestic tourism sampling survey data for basic data and comprehensive application of panel data. A variety of empirical research methods such as data gravitational model, tool variable method, diffusion angle and distance calculation and simultaneous equation model are used to study the influence and mode of traffic system on inter provincial tourism convection and provincial diffusion flow, and the negative effects on tourism caused by the overconstruction of China's integrated traffic network are combined according to the analysis results. The significance of the corresponding constructive countermeasures and measures is to explore the impact of the transportation system on Tourism from different spatial scales, to pay attention to the endogenous problems in the tourism transportation system and to effectively evaluate the impact of traffic on tourism. From the theoretical research framework and research methods, the panel data gravitational model based on spatial interaction is built. The estimation form of the tool variable and the tourism flow diffusion index based on the spatial diffusion of tourism flow will effectively expand the quantitative research methods of tourism traffic research and related fields. The full text is divided into four parts: the first part is the research significance part, which concretely clarifies the background, significance, content, method and technical route of this study. The research background of two aspects of tourism transportation research theory and practice is described. The research significance of this study is pointed out. The research content, framework and technical route of this study are fully introduced. The second part is the theoretical basis and method part, including the second and third chapters. The second chapter is the Research on the current tourism traffic at home and abroad. Systematic combing and summing up as the foundation for the innovation of this study is carried out. The study of regional impact on tourism traffic, regional characteristics, tourist traffic mode selection and spatial behavior patterns is summarized by the introduction of the citation time series theory, and the domestic research progress is also summarized in the third chapter. The theoretical basis and analytical methods of the study include paradigm base and paradigm selection under the framework of tourism transportation system, gravitational model theory, panel data model and the measurement of regional tourism diffusion, which provide the basis for the empirical study of the third parts of this study. The third part is the empirical research part, including fourth, fifth, six, and seven chapters. The main content of this paper is to study the influence of traffic infrastructure construction on the spatial and temporal changes of inter provincial tourism flow. The research and construction of regional development and tourism policy index as a tool variable, using the tool variable method panel data gravitational model to analyze the impact of traffic infrastructure density on inter provincial tourism convection. The growth of the density of ground transportation infrastructure promotes the growth of destination tourism flow. The study also divides the panel data into eastern, central and western regions in the destination of tourist flow and the province of the tourist source area to the random effect model of the tool variable method in the East, the middle and the West, and finds that there is a certain difference in the influencing factors of the travel and travel flow in the East, middle and west regions. The study uses the opposition of virtual variables in the provincial tourism flow to express the preference effect of tourism selection in the province. It is found that the improvement of traffic infrastructure can effectively improve the preference effect of tourism selection in the province, which means that the improvement of transportation infrastructure can promote the flow of inter provincial tourism flow and promote the good efficiency of tourism in the macro regional range. Secondly, the study of the influence of transportation system on the migration flow diffusion in Jiangsu province is taken as a case. It is found that the changes in the elements of the transportation system in Jiangsu province have little influence on the overall structure of the passenger transport, but it has a certain influence on the structure of the passenger transport mode in various cities, and the influence is with the city itself and the surrounding area. The variation of regional traffic system elements is related. The multi destination tourism diffusion flow in Jiangsu province is described and analyzed by using the double index diffusion index of distance and angle. It is found that the elements of the traffic system have influence on the diffusion of tourism flow in the cities. The time and space changes in the Provincial diffusion flow in the construction of the major projects in the expressway construction In addition to the influence of the elements of the traffic lines, the setting of railway stations and flights, the adjustment of the long-distance passenger transport and the speed increase of the railway, and the elements of traffic mode and traffic technical elements, etc. The diffusion of traffic has a certain influence. The study also found that the mode of transportation has an influence on the direction and distance of the travel flow, and the diffusion angle also has a certain influence on the diffusion distance. The two effects all have regional differences. Finally, this study analyzes the negative impact of the excessive construction of comprehensive traffic on tourism development in China. The fourth part is the conclusion, the innovation and the future direction of the study. The research has made some progress in the following three aspects: first, the research on the spatial scale provides a new research perspective and analysis framework for the study of the regional impact of tourism traffic. Through the tool variable method panel data model, the distance and angle double index diffusion index verified the influence of traffic on tourism flow, expanded the research method of tourism traffic, and finally analyzed the influence of the traffic system on the spatial and temporal changes of tourism flow in the provinces and provinces from the empirical level, and promoted the interprovincial flow of tourism flow by the interchange system. There is an impact on intra provincial proliferation and there is spatial differentiation. The future can be further studied in time continuation, negative impact empirical research and micro individual scale.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7
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本文编号：2013914