中美国际旅游服务贸易研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 10:16

本文选题：国际旅游业 + 产业内贸易　；参考：《湘潭大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着服务贸易在全球范围内的蓬勃发展，学者们逐渐关注对国际服务业产业内贸易水平的理论和实证研究。近年来，国际旅游业在国际服务贸易的发展中表现得尤为突出，成为拉动第三产业发展的主要动力。本文以传统产业内贸易相关理论为基础，结合国际旅游业的自身特点，研究了影响中美国际旅游业产业内贸易水平的主要因素。本文试图以计量模型的实证结果为依据，为促进中美国际旅游服务贸易的发展提出建议。本文一开始主要是梳理、总结和评价现有的相关国内外文献，并在此基础上明确本文的写作有哪些创新点和不足之处。随后介绍一些相关的理论基础，包括对国际旅游业和产业内贸易的概念界定，产业内贸易产生动因的整理，以及服务业产业内贸易效应的介绍。然后先是分别介绍中国和美国国际旅游服务业的发展现状，再就中美双边国际旅游业的发展进行分析和评价，从静态和动态的角度利用G-L指数和MIIT指数分析了中美国际旅游业产业内贸易的水平。之后就是文章的重点部分，主要是按照模型构建、实证过程以及实证结果分析的顺序进行，在模型构建的过程中，用G-L指数作为测算因变量产业内贸易水平的指标，分别引入人均收入差异（AGDP）、市场规模差异（ASIZE）、货物贸易密集度（TCD）、服务贸易开放度（OP）、外商直接投资（FDI）、航空运输质量差异（ATRAN）、贸易不平衡度（DMM）7个影响因素作为自变量。然后采用最小二乘估计法（O-L），运用Eviews6.0计量软件对这8个时间序列数据进行回归。之后对回归结果进行统计检验、随机干扰性的序列相关性检验以及单位根检验，并尝试进行协整检验。虽然由于受到小样本变量的限制，无法对其进行长期均衡的检验，但是其回归结果还是有一定的意义。实证结果表明，人均收入差异（AGDP）、服务贸易开放程度(OP)以及贸易不平衡度（DMM）与中美国际旅游业产业内贸易水平呈负相关关系，市场规模差异（ASIZE）和外商直接投资（FDI）与中美国际旅游业产业内贸易水平呈正相关关系。文章最后对前面的理论和实证研究进行总结，主要得出以下结论：中国和美国都是国际旅游服务贸易的大国；中美双边旅游服务贸易总额大，，但是发展不平衡，中国长期处于贸易逆差状态，且贸易差额在近几年不断加大；中美国际旅游服务业产业内贸易的发展波动较大；中美国际旅游服务业产业内贸易发展前景较好。最后为促进中美国际旅游业产业内贸易的发展提出了四点建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of service trade in the world, scholars pay more and more attention to the theoretical and empirical research on the level of intra-industry trade in international service industry. In recent years, international tourism has become the main driving force for the development of the tertiary industry, especially in the development of international service trade. Based on the traditional theory of intra-industry trade and the characteristics of international tourism, this paper studies the main factors that affect the level of intra-industry trade between China and the United States. Based on the empirical results of the econometric model, this paper attempts to give some suggestions for promoting the development of international tourism service trade between China and the United States. The first part of this paper is to sort out, summarize and evaluate the existing domestic and foreign literature, and on the basis of this, it is clear what innovative points and shortcomings of this writing. Then it introduces some related theoretical bases, including the definition of the concepts of international tourism and intra-industry trade, the collation of the causes of intra-industry trade, and the introduction of intra-industry trade effects in services. Then, first of all, it introduces the current situation of the development of international tourism services in China and the United States, and then analyzes and evaluates the development of international tourism between China and the United States. Using G-L index and MIIT index, this paper analyzes the level of intra-industry trade between China and the United States from the static and dynamic point of view. Then it is the key part of the article, mainly according to the order of model construction, empirical process and empirical results analysis. In the process of model construction, the G-L index is used as the index to measure the level of intra-industry trade in dependent variables. As independent variables, seven influencing factors, such as per capita income difference, market size difference, trade intensity of goods, service trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), air transport quality difference and trade imbalance (DMMM), are introduced respectively. Then the eight time series data are regressed by using the least square estimation method and the Eviews6.0 software. Then the regression results are tested by statistical test, random interference sequence correlation test and unit root test, and cointegration test is attempted. Because of the limitation of small sample variables, it is impossible to test their long term equilibrium, but the regression results still have some significance. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between the difference of per capita income and the level of intra-industry trade between China and the United States, the degree of openness of service trade and the degree of trade imbalance (DMMM). The difference of market size between ASIZE and FDI (FDI) is positively correlated with the level of intra-industry trade between China and the United States. In the end, the paper summarizes the previous theoretical and empirical studies, and draws the following conclusions: China and the United States are both big countries in international trade in tourism services, and the total amount of bilateral trade in tourism services between China and the United States is large, but the development of bilateral trade in tourism services is not balanced. China is in the state of trade deficit for a long time, and the trade balance has been increasing in recent years; the development of intra-industry trade between China and the United States has fluctuated greatly; the prospect of intra-industry trade of Sino-American international tourism service industry is better. Finally, four suggestions are put forward to promote the development of international tourism trade between China and the United States.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.68;F592;F597.12

【参考文献】