外国入境旅游需求的影响因素：理论建模与经验分析

发布时间：2018-06-24 17:45

本文选题：外国入境旅游 + 旅游价格　；参考：《兰州商学院》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：旅游业作为一种朝阳产业，具有关联度高、综合性强等特点，对国民经济起到拉动作用，尤其是入境旅游可以为国家带来较多的外汇收入，所有国家无一例外的支持发展入境旅游业。入境旅游是旅游业的重要组成部分，在外汇收入、经济建设和形象宣传等方面发挥着重要作用。80年代以来，中国入境旅游业得到了充分的发展，呈现出一种兴旺的局面，使中国跻身于世界旅游大国行列。本文从实践角度入手，，通过对国内外入境旅游需求研究文献进行分析归类综述，并对中国入境旅游发展现状进行了分析。借鉴消费经济学中消费理论构建了入境旅游需求的初步模型。并以2001-2009年中国入境旅游主要的20个客源国的面板数据进行了计量经济分析。根据计量经济分析找出了影响外国入境旅游需求的关键因素，并提出了发展入境旅游的相应对策与建议。全文主要分为五章：第一章是绪论。主要内容为本文研究的背景和意义，对国内外文献进行综述简要介绍了文章的结构框架。第二章是入境旅游现状分析。通过分析收集各项统计数据归纳整理中国入境旅游发展现状。考察包括入境旅游人数的增长情况，外汇收入以及构成情况，入境游客结构特征分析，并结合国内旅游、入境旅游、外国入境旅游人数进行了对比。其中入境游客结构特征的考察包括性别构成、年龄构成、以及原由目的构成。通过对入境旅游现状分析，找出了入境旅游在中国旅游中的特点。无论从人数还是消费规模而言都远不及国内旅游，同时旅游人数的增长率来看，入境旅游人数受特殊事件波动较大。第三章为外国入境旅游需求建模。通过主要消费理论的回顾，借鉴其经验进行入境旅游需求建模。考察的主要消费理论有：凯恩斯的消费理论、杜森贝利的消费理论、弗里德曼的消费理论、莫迪里安尼的消费理论以及理性预期消费函数。第四章为实证分析部分，包括变量的选取以及数据的平稳性检验，根据需求建模归纳的影响旅游的因素，通过计量模型并进行回归分析。对于模型设定形式的确定、异方差以及共线性进行了检验。最后通过（PCSE估计）纠正异方差对面板数据进行再次回归。第五章为结论与建议部分。借助回归结果的分析，归纳出对于我国入境旅游旅游最重要的四个因数：国内旅游人数、实际汇率、客源国的GNI以及中国的利率水平。
[Abstract]:As a sunrise industry, tourism has the characteristics of high correlation and strong comprehensiveness. It plays a driving role in the national economy. In particular, inbound tourism can bring more foreign exchange income to the country. All countries, without exception, support the development of inbound tourism. Inbound tourism is an important part of the tourism industry. It has played an important role in foreign exchange income, economic construction and image publicity since 1980s. Since the 1980s, China's inbound tourism industry has been fully developed, showing a prosperous situation. Put China in the ranks of the world's largest tourist countries. From the perspective of practice, this paper analyzes and classifies the domestic and foreign literature on the demand for inbound tourism, and analyzes the present situation of the development of inbound tourism in China. Based on the consumption theory in consumer economics, this paper constructs a preliminary model of inbound tourism demand. The econometric analysis is carried out on the panel data of 20 major countries of inbound tourism in China from 2001 to 2009. Based on the econometric analysis, this paper finds out the key factors affecting the demand for foreign inbound tourism, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the development of inbound tourism. The full text is divided into five chapters: the first chapter is the introduction. The main content is the background and significance of this paper. The second chapter is the present situation analysis of inbound tourism. Through the analysis of the collection of statistical data summarized and sorted out the status quo of inbound tourism development in China. The investigation includes the growth of inbound tourist population, foreign exchange income and composition, the structural characteristics of inbound tourists, and the comparison of the number of inbound tourists, domestic tourism, inbound tourism and foreign inbound tourism. The structural characteristics of inbound tourists include sex composition, age composition and original purpose. By analyzing the present situation of inbound tourism, this paper finds out the characteristics of inbound tourism in Chinese tourism. Both the number of people and the scale of consumption are far less than domestic tourism, and the growth rate of the number of tourists, the number of inbound tourism fluctuates greatly by special events. The third chapter models the foreign inbound tourism demand. Based on the review of the main consumption theory, the model of inbound tourism demand is built based on its experience. The main consumption theories are Keynesian consumption theory, Dusenbelle consumption theory, Friedman's consumption theory, Modigliani's consumption theory and rational expectation consumption function. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis, including the selection of variables and the test of the stability of the data, according to the demand modeling induction of factors affecting tourism, through the econometric model and regression analysis. The heteroscedasticity and collinearity of the model are tested. Finally, the panel data are regressed by correcting heteroscedasticity through (PCSE estimation). The fifth chapter is the conclusion and recommendation part. Based on the analysis of the regression results, the four most important factors for inbound tourism in China are summed up: the number of domestic tourists, the real exchange rate, the GNI of the source country and the interest rate level of China.
【学位授予单位】：兰州商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592;F224

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