基于生存分析的长沙市旅行社行业发展状况与对策研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 20:41

本文选题：旅行社 + 生存分析　；参考：《湘潭大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：旅游业已定位为我国国民经济战略性支柱产业和人民群众更加满意的现代服务业,《长沙市旅游业发展总体规划(2009-2020年)》提出将长沙打造成为全国著名的旅游目的地和热点旅游城市,推动长沙市旅游业的繁荣和可持续发展。旅行社作为贯穿吃住行游购娱的重要旅游企业,是旅游行业中的龙头,其生存发展对长沙市旅游业战略目标的更好实现具有重要意义。旅行社作为盈利企业,具有一般企业的共同特性,同样面临生存考验,有必要考察其经营期限长短规律并依此调整发展对策。本文主要运用生存分析统计方法,对考察期长沙市旅行社企业生存数据进行深入的分析评价,得出以下结论：第一,生存分析适用于旅行社研究。旅行社经营具有生存分析所处理问题的特性,符合其研究理论的适用范围；旅行社经营具有生存特征,存在相关的生存因素,可成为生存分析的研究对象；相关政府部门对旅行社的监管登记制度保证了生存分析研究数据的可得。第二,长沙市旅行社经营卓有成效。2000年至2010年长沙市国内旅游人数、国内旅游收入、入境旅游人数、国际旅游外汇收入等统计数据直观展示了旅行社营业绩效。第三,寿命表结果显示,经营时间在1年内的旅行社并没有经营失败事件发生,超过1年便开始出现终点事件,并可依据其发生频率可分为高发期、缓和期、平滑期3个阶段。第四,乘积极限法单因素生存分析显示,注册资本、成立时间、企业形式、地理位置4个因素对长沙市旅行社企业生存时间具有显著影响,业务范围、负责人性别因素对旅行社生存函数的影响没有统计学意义。第五,Cox回归多因素生存分析显示,注册资本、成立时间、企业形式、地理位置4个影响因素进入回归方程,Cox比例风险模型可表示为最后,提出适时调整经营策略、努力壮大企业实力、积极应对市场风险、逐步推进转型升级、有效拓宽经营业务、合理选择地理区位等发展对策及建议。
[Abstract]:Tourism has been positioned as the strategic pillar industry of our national economy and the people are more satisfied with the modern service industry. "Changsha City Tourism Development Master Plan (2009-2020)" proposed to build Changsha into a national famous tourist destination. And hot tourist cities, Promote the prosperity and sustainable development of tourism in Changsha. As an important tourism enterprise, travel agency is the leading tourist enterprise in tourism industry, and its survival and development is of great significance to the better realization of the strategic goal of Changsha tourism industry. Travel agency, as a profitable enterprise, has the common characteristics of general enterprises, and also faces the test of survival. It is necessary to investigate the regularity of its operating term and adjust the development countermeasures accordingly. This article mainly uses the survival analysis statistical method, carries on the thorough analysis and the appraisal to the investigation period Changsha travel agency enterprise survival data, obtains the following conclusion: first, the survival analysis is suitable for the travel agency research. The operation of travel agency has the characteristics of survival analysis, which accords with the scope of application of its research theory, and the travel agency management has the characteristics of existence and the existence of relevant survival factors, which can become the research object of survival analysis. The relevant government agencies' supervision and registration system ensures the availability of survival analysis data. From 2000 to 2010, the number of domestic tourism, domestic tourism income, inbound tourism, international tourism foreign exchange income and other statistical data directly show the operating performance of travel agencies. Thirdly, the results of life table show that the travel agencies with operating time within one year did not fail in operation, and the terminal events began to occur after one year, and can be divided into three stages according to their frequency of occurrence: high incidence period, moderate period and smooth period. Fourth, the single factor survival analysis of the product limit method shows that the registered capital, the time of establishment, the form of the enterprise and the geographical position have significant influence on the survival time of the travel agency enterprises in Changsha. The effect of responsible gender factor on the survival function of travel agency was not statistically significant. Fifth, Cox regression multivariate survival analysis shows that there are four factors influencing the registered capital, the time of establishment, the form of the enterprise, and the geographical location. The Cox proportional risk model can be expressed as the last, and the timely adjustment of the management strategy is put forward. Efforts to strengthen the strength of enterprises, actively deal with market risks, step by step to promote the transformation and upgrading, effectively expand business, reasonable choice of geographical location and other development countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7

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