中国入境旅游需求影响因素的面板协整分析

发布时间：2018-07-14 21:49

【摘要】：入境旅游是我国的三大旅游市场(入境游、出境游、境内游)之一,近年来随着入境旅游业的蓬勃发展,其对我国经济发展的促进作用凸显。目前,国内学者对我国入境旅游影响因素的数据选取上主要以某一省、市的入境旅游数据或中国入境旅游总体数据为基础,采用抽样调查方法、灰色关联分析法、双对数模型估计等研究方法对我国入境旅游需求影响因素进行分析；国外学者一般以收入、人口、汇率为主要变量,通过建立经济数学模型(如ARIMA模型、LLC模型等)分析入境旅游需求的影响因素。本文主要以2010年中国入境旅游接待量超过100万人次的部分省、直辖市、自治区为研究对象,综合各省、市的研究结果,分析我国入境旅游的影响因素。首先,分析中国旅游业的发展条件,进而从国际旅游需求趋势、季节影响、旅游价格趋势三方面对中国入境旅游进行分析。其次,将所研究省、市的入境游客数量作为被解释变量,汇率、国内生产总值、相对价格作为解释变量,构建各省、市的入境旅游需求模型。最后,分类别对各省、市入境旅游需求模型进行实证检验。本文分别对相同客源国省、市和不同客源国省、市的入境旅游模型进行面板协整分析和模型估计,得到如下结论：综合相同客源国省、市和不同客源国省、市的面板协整和模型估计结果,各省、市与其各自客源国的相对价格(PR2)、国内生产总值、汇率是影响我国入境旅游需求的三大主要因素。其中,各省份入境旅游需求也受到其某一客源因入境旅游人数的影响。1997年的亚洲金融危机、2001年的美国9.11恐怖袭击事件和2003年的非典性肺炎在不同程度、不同范围影响我国的入境旅游需求。
[Abstract]:Inbound tourism is one of the three major tourist markets in China (inbound, outbound and domestic). In recent years, with the vigorous development of inbound tourism, it has played an important role in promoting the economic development of our country. At present, on the basis of the inbound tourism data of a certain province or city or the general data of China's inbound tourism, the domestic scholars mainly choose the data of the factors affecting the inbound tourism in China, and adopt the sampling survey method and the grey relational analysis method. Double logarithmic model estimation and other research methods are used to analyze the influencing factors of inbound tourism demand in China. Foreign scholars generally take income, population and exchange rate as the main variables. The economic mathematical model (such as Arima model and LLC model) is established to analyze the influence factors of inbound tourism demand. In this paper, some provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions which received more than 1 million inbound tourists in China in 2010 are taken as the research objects. Based on the research results of provinces and cities, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of inbound tourism in China. Firstly, it analyzes the developing conditions of China's tourism industry, and then analyzes China's inbound tourism from three aspects: the trend of international tourism demand, the seasonal influence, and the trend of tourism price. Secondly, the number of inbound tourists in the provinces and cities studied is taken as the explanatory variable, the exchange rate, GDP and relative price are taken as the explanatory variables, and the model of inbound tourism demand of the provinces and cities is constructed. Finally, the model of inbound tourism demand of provinces and cities is tested by classification. In this paper, the panel cointegration analysis and model estimation of the inbound tourism models of the same tourist country, city and different tourist source country and city are carried out, and the following conclusions are obtained: synthesizing the same tourist source country province, city and different tourist source country province, According to the results of the panel cointegration model, the relative price (PR2), GDP and exchange rate of each province, city and their respective guest countries are the three main factors that affect the demand for inbound tourism in China. Among them, the demand for inbound tourism in various provinces is also affected by the number of inbound tourists from a certain source of tourists. The Asian financial crisis in 1997, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States and SARS in 2003 were in varying degrees. The different scope affects the inbound tourism demand of our country.
【学位授予单位】：北方工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592;F224

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