震后景区旅游人数波动的多重分形结构研究——以九寨沟风景名胜区为例

发布时间：2018-07-20 18:59

【摘要】：该研究运用多重分形消除趋势移动平均分析法(MF-DMA)分析了汶川大地震前后4年的九寨沟国内外游客时序波动趋势,发现九寨沟旅游市场具有长期记忆性和多重分形特征。进一步采用滑移窗口理论方法,分析了地震前后九寨沟国内外游客人数波动多重分形结构的时序演化过程。研究发现,虽然震后九寨沟旅游市场遭受沉重打击,但仅过了1年,以2009年5月12日为界,九寨沟旅游系统内在分形机制就逐步恢复到震前状态。通过对该现象的深入分析,研究受地震等自然灾害影响的旅游景区灾后市场恢复过程中出现的临界质点效应,认为具有分形特征的灾后景区旅游市场恢复是一个由量变到质变的相变过程。在这一演化过程中,旅游系统是否进入临界态,以及是否有引发相变的关键事件是起决定作用的两个关键要素。
[Abstract]:In this study, the multifractal elimination trend moving average analysis (MF-DMA) was used to analyze the time series fluctuation trend of domestic and foreign tourists in Jiuzhaigou before and after the Wenchuan earthquake. It was found that Jiuzhaigou tourism market had long-term memory and multifractal characteristics. Furthermore, using the sliding window theory, the temporal evolution of the multifractal structure of the tourist population fluctuation in Jiuzhaigou before and after the earthquake is analyzed. It is found that although Jiuzhaigou tourism market suffered a heavy blow after the earthquake, only a year later, with May 12, 2009 as the boundary, the fractal mechanism of Jiuzhaigou tourism system gradually returned to its pre-earthquake state. Through the in-depth analysis of this phenomenon, the critical particle effect in the process of market recovery of tourist scenic spots affected by natural disasters such as earthquakes is studied. It is considered that the recovery of tourist market in the disaster area with fractal characteristics is a phase change process from quantitative change to qualitative change. In this evolutionary process, whether the tourism system enters the critical state or not and whether there are the key events that trigger the phase transition are the two key factors that play a decisive role.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学工商管理学院旅游管理系;生态旅游湖南省重点实验室;吉首大学生物资源与环境科学学院;九寨沟管理局科研处;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究基金青年项目(10YJCZH075) 2012年国家旅游局面上项目(12TACG012) 国家自然科学基金青年项目(41105118) 成都市科技局软科学计划项目(11RKYB169ZF)资助~~
【分类号】：F592.7;F224

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