基于抗周期性角度的我国旅游产业政策效用评估研究——以四次旅游产业政策为例

发布时间：2019-01-09 10:32

【摘要】：旅游产业政策的效用评估是保证旅游产业政策科学性的有效手段。根据旅游产业政策效用评估的过程和目标,构建了旅游产业政策评估体系。对比国民经济和国内旅游的波动变化方向,得出国内旅游具有抗周期性结论。以1997年为界,国内旅游相对于国民经济而言,其从前期的滞后增长向后期的领先增长转变,从前期是国民经济增长的结果向后期是国民经济增长的动力转变。据此,1985年旅游产业政策,其对国民经济和旅游产业发展作用有限,且带来旅游产业结构高级化的下降;1991年和1993年旅游产业政策,其对国民经济发展意义不大,但对旅游产业发展起到了保健作用;1999年旅游产业政策,其对国民经济恢复起到了一定作用,对旅游经济发展也起到了一定激励作用;2009年旅游产业政策,即促进了国民经济发展,又激励了旅游产业发展,但也加深了旅游经济的脆弱性。
[Abstract]:The utility evaluation of tourism industry policy is an effective means to ensure the scientific nature of tourism industry policy. According to the process and goal of tourism industry policy utility evaluation, the tourism industry policy evaluation system is constructed. By comparing the fluctuation direction of national economy and domestic tourism, it is concluded that domestic tourism has anti-periodicity. In 1997, relative to the national economy, domestic tourism has changed from the lag growth in the early stage to the leading growth in the later period, from the result of the national economic growth in the early period to the motive force of the national economic growth in the latter stage. According to this, the 1985 tourism industry policy has a limited effect on the development of national economy and tourism industry, and has brought about a decline in the structure of tourism industry. The policy of tourism industry in 1991 and 1993 is of little significance to the development of national economy, but it plays a healthy role in the development of tourism industry. The policy of tourism industry in 1999 has played a certain role in the national economy recovery and has also played a certain role in stimulating the development of tourism economy. The policy of tourism industry in 2009 not only promotes the development of national economy, but also stimulates the development of tourism industry, but it also deepens the fragility of tourism economy.
【作者单位】：河南大学旅游科学研究所;陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(12BJY131) 教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(11YJA630043) 国家旅游局规划项目(12TACG011)
【分类号】：F592;F224

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