民族地区旅游产业风险评估及防范对策研究

发布时间：2019-03-18 11:28

【摘要】：近年来，民族地区旅游产业倍受学术界关注，民族地区旅游产业成长问题更是学术界关注的热点问题。经过几十年的发展，民族地区旅游产业成长迅速，各方面建设开始向成熟迈进，但是在民族地区旅游产业迅速发展的同时，由于受到种种原因的干扰，民族地区旅游产业发展面临着风险。旅游产业关联性较强，是一个高度敏感的交叉性产业，民族地区由于受到自身特殊的经济、社会和地理条件的限制，使得旅游产业的脆弱性在民族地区表现得更加明显。近年来，民族地区突发事件频繁发生，2008年3月份“拉萨3.14事件”，5月份“汶川地震”，2009年“甲型H1N1流感”，2010年4月玉树“7.1级地震”，8月舟曲泥石流等突发事件的发生，严重打击了我国民族地区旅游产业的发展，给民族地区旅游产业造成了巨大的损失。本文主要是从三个方面来分析民族地区旅游产业所面临的风险：民族地区旅游产业自身结构问题引起的风险，，民族地区旅游产业内部企业管理经营引起的风险以及民族地区旅游产业外界环境的不确定性引起的风险。从这三个方面出发，建立民族地区旅游产业风险评估指标体系。运用BP人工神经网络法，对呼伦贝尔、丹东、长白山、恩施、张家界、阳朔、海南、九寨沟、黄果树、丽江、拉萨、敦煌、青海湖、银川、乌鲁木齐这15个民族地区旅游产业风险进行评估。最后对民族地区旅游产业风险防范提出建议。本文具体内容如下：第一，文章绪论，选题的背景、意义，国内外文献综述，理论基础，技术路线，研究方法及可能的创新点。第二，民族地区旅游产业现状以及民族地区旅游产业风险现状的分析。第三，民族地区旅游产业风险评估指标体系设置及模型构建。第四，基于人工神经网络的民族地区旅游产业风险评估实证分析。第五，民族地区旅游产业风险防范对策研究。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the tourism industry in ethnic areas has attracted much attention from academia, and the growth of tourism industry in ethnic areas has become a hot issue in academia. After decades of development, the tourism industry in ethnic areas has grown rapidly, and various aspects of construction have begun to advance towards maturity. However, with the rapid development of tourism industry in ethnic areas, due to various reasons, the tourism industry has been disturbed by various reasons. The development of tourism industry in minority areas is facing risks. Tourism industry is a highly sensitive cross-cutting industry, because of its own special economic, social and geographical constraints, the fragility of tourism industry is more obvious in ethnic areas. In recent years, there have been frequent incidents in ethnic minority areas, such as the "3.14 Lhasa incident" in March 2008, the "Wenchuan earthquake" in May, the "Influenza A H1N1" in 2009, and the "7.1 magnitude earthquake" in Yushu in April 2010. The occurrence of Zhouqu debris flow and other sudden events in August has seriously damaged the development of tourism industry in ethnic minority areas and caused huge losses to the tourism industry in ethnic areas. This paper mainly analyzes the risks faced by the tourism industry in ethnic regions from three aspects: the risks caused by the structural problems of the tourism industries in ethnic areas; The risks caused by the management and operation of the internal enterprises in the tourism industry and the uncertainty of the external environment of the tourism industry in the minority areas. From these three aspects, we set up the risk assessment index system of tourism industry in ethnic areas. The BP artificial neural network method was used to study the relationship between Hulunbeir, Dandong, Changbai Mountain, Enshi, Zhangjiajie, Yangshuo, Hainan, Jiuzhaigou, Huangguoshu, Lijiang, Lhasa, Dunhuang, Qinghai Lake, Yinchuan, Urumqi these 15 ethnic areas tourism industry risk assessment. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the risk prevention of tourism industry in minority areas. The specific contents of this paper are as follows: first, the introduction, background, significance, domestic and foreign literature review, theoretical basis, technical route, research methods and possible innovations. Second, the current situation of tourism industry in ethnic areas and the analysis of the current situation of tourism industry risk in ethnic areas. Thirdly, the risk assessment index system of tourism industry in minority areas is set up and the model is constructed. Fourth, the empirical analysis of tourism industry risk assessment in ethnic areas based on artificial neural network. Fifthly, study on the countermeasures of tourism industry risk prevention in minority areas.
【学位授予单位】：吉首大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7;TP18

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