危机事件及政策变动对中国入境旅游的影响研究——基于剔除直接价格效应的中国入境旅游收入

发布时间：2019-03-31 11:29

【摘要】：文章选择了适合中国入境旅游收入月度数据序列预测的TRAMO/SEATS模型、SARIMA模型和半对数模型,并在剔除了人民币对美元汇率和中国国内消费水平变动对中国入境旅游收入的直接价格效应下,建立基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型,然后根据相关比较情况,定量分析危机事件及政策变动对中国入境旅游收入的影响程度和影响时滞,全面探究中国入境旅游收入、人数和人均消费的恢复状况和变化趋势。研究发现:①相关危机事件及政策变动不仅影响了境外游客来中国的决定,更影响了中国入境旅游者在中国旅游时的消费水平,造成中国入境旅游收入受影响幅度最为显著;②虽然中国入境旅游收入、人数和人均消费均表现出共同受影响的特征,但是相比中国入境旅游人数,中国入境旅游收入和人均消费恢复幅度微弱,受相关危机事件及政策变动的滞后影响更为严重。
[Abstract]:This paper chooses TRAMO/SEATS model, SARIMA model and semi-logarithm model, which are suitable for the forecast of monthly data series of inbound tourism income in China. After eliminating the direct price effect of RMB / US dollar exchange rate and changes in domestic consumption level on China's inbound tourism income, a combination forecasting model based on IOWA operator is established, and then according to the relevant comparison, The influence degree and time lag of crisis events and policy changes on China's inbound tourism income are analyzed, and the recovery status and changing trend of China's inbound tourism income, number and per capita consumption are discussed in an all-round way. It is found that: (1) the related crisis events and policy changes not only affect the decision of foreign tourists to come to China, but also affect the consumption level of Chinese inbound tourists in China, resulting in the most significant impact on the inbound tourism income of China; 2. Although China's inbound tourism income, number of people and per capita consumption are both affected by the characteristics, but compared with the number of inbound tourism in China, the recovery rate of inbound tourism income and per capita consumption in China is weak. The delayed impact of related crisis events and policy changes is even more serious.
【作者单位】：四川师范大学可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室;四川师范大学数学与软件科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(11071177) 可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室项目(J2012N08)资助~~
【分类号】：F592;F224

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