重庆市旅游产业发展与经济增长实证研究

发布时间：2019-06-14 17:05

【摘要】：旅游产业是一个关联性极强、发展迅速的综合性新兴现代产业，有着改善产业结构、带动其他经济部门快速发展的作用。而关于旅游产业与经济增长的研究一直是旅游影响研究的三大内容（经济、环境、社会）之一。重庆作为中国西部最具发展潜力的特大城市，地域独特，，旅游资源丰富，历史文化悠久，城市形态独具特色。自1997年重庆直辖后，其在国内地位和国际知名度更是迅速提高，为重庆市旅游产业发展以及经济增长带来了良好契机。长期以来，旅游属于经济性质的一种社会现象已经得到学者的广泛认可，世界各地区发展旅游也主要着眼于它所带来的经济效益。国外关于旅游产业发展与经济增长关系的理论研究先后实现了三次飞跃，为20世纪80年代以后我国旅游业学术界关于此项课题的研究奠定了基础。尽管大多数理论都认为旅游产业发展对经济增长具有显著作用，然而落实到在一个长期动态的经济发展过程中，重庆市旅游产业发展与经济增长的因果关系到底如何；如果存在因果关系，它们之间的影响程度到底如何；究竟是旅游产业发展先于经济增长还是经济增长先于旅游产业发展，其实仍然比较模糊。为了客观正确地分析重庆市旅游产业发展与经济增长的关系，本文首先从重庆市旅游产业发展历史回顾、概况、特征、存在的主要问题四个方面分析了重庆市旅游产业发展现状；然后运用计量经济学方法对重庆市旅游产业发展与经济增长进行三个方面的实证研究：第一，用Granger因果关系检验重庆市旅游产业与经济增长的因果关系；第二，在得出二者之间存在因果关系的结果后，首先对重庆市旅游产业发展对经济增长的贡献度进行测度与分析，然后建立长期动态均衡的拉动效果模型并对其拉动效果进行分析；第三，采用交叉谱分析方法确切地了解在长期和短期过程中，旅游产业与经济增长之间的领先和滞后情况。通过以上系统分析得出：重庆市旅游产业发展与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。从贡献度的指标值来看，重庆市旅游产业对经济增长贡献的增长势头是比较强劲的，重庆市旅游产业在现阶段可以作为支柱产业来发展。从基于交叉谱分析的重庆市旅游产业发展与经济增长的领先和滞后关系研究来看，重庆市旅游产业发展滞后于经济增长水平。最后，本文提出了旨在促进重庆市旅游产业发展与经济增长的良性互动建议。
[Abstract]:The tourism industry is a very strong and rapid and comprehensive new and modern industry, which has the function of improving the industrial structure and driving the rapid development of other economic sectors. The research on tourism industry and economic growth has always been one of the three main contents of the study of tourism influence (economy, environment and society). Chongqing, as the most potential big city in the western part of China, has a unique region, rich tourism resources, a long history and a unique urban form. Since the direct administration of Chongqing in 1997, its status and international popularity have been improved rapidly, which has brought a good opportunity for the development of the tourism industry and the economic growth of Chongqing. For a long time, a social phenomenon which belongs to the economic character has been widely recognized by the scholars, and the development of tourism in various parts of the world mainly focuses on the economic effect it brings. The theoretical study of the relationship between the development of tourism industry and the economic growth of the foreign countries has made three leaps, which has laid the foundation for the research of the tourism industry in China after the 1980s. In the long-term and dynamic economic development, the relationship between the development of the tourism industry and the economic growth of Chongqing is in the bottom, and if there is a causal relationship What is the degree of influence between them is the development of the tourism industry before the growth of the economy or the economic growth before the development of the tourism industry. In order to objectively and correctly analyze the relationship between the development of Chongqing's tourism industry and the economic growth, this paper first analyzes the development of Chongqing's tourism industry from four aspects: the history of the development of the tourism industry in Chongqing, the general situation, the characteristics and the main problems. The Present Situation of the Development and Economic Growth of the Tourism Industry in Chongqing by Using the econometrics Method The Study of the Certificate: First, the Granger Causality Test for Chongqing's Tourism Industry and Economic Growth A causal relationship; second, there is a causal relationship between the two. After the result of the fruit relationship, the contribution degree of the development of the tourism industry in Chongqing to the economic growth is measured and analyzed, and then a long-term dynamic equilibrium pulling effect model is set up and the result is pulled. the dynamic effect is analyzed; and thirdly, the cross spectrum analysis method is adopted to accurately understand Tourism industry and economic growth in the long-term and short-term process The leading and lagging situation of Chongqing's tourism industry is as follows: the development of Chongqing's tourism industry and the economic increase In view of the index value of contribution degree, the growth of Chongqing's tourism industry's contribution to economic growth is relatively strong, and the tourism industry in Chongqing is at the present stage It can be developed as a pillar industry. From the research of the relationship between the development of Chongqing's tourism industry and the economic growth based on the cross-spectrum analysis, the tourism industry in Chongqing The development of tourism industry is lagging behind the level of economic growth. Finally, this paper puts forward the development and development of the tourism industry in Chongqing.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F592.7

【参考文献】