基于免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 19:28

本文关键词：基于免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究　出处：《中国土地科学》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：研究目的:科学识别黑龙江省耕地系统安全警情现状及其未来发展趋势。研究方法:改进突变级数模型和Elman神经网络模型。研究结果:(1)构建基于生物免疫机理的耕地系统安全警情评定指标体系,得出黑龙江省警情1995—2014年整体呈波动上升趋势,警度从"无警"上升至"轻警",再至"中警",说明基于改进突变级数模型的评价结果可凸显评价对象之"优、劣"特征;(2)引入Elman神经网络构建耕地系统安全警情预测模型,测试拟合精度在0.97以上,预测结果可靠,表明未来20年黑龙江省警情将整体呈先升高、后降低趋势,警度在"轻警"与"中警"之间。研究结论:基于生物免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究,可为省域尺度下耕地系统安全预警提供一种新的思路。
[Abstract]:Objective: to scientifically identify the present situation and future development trend of cultivated land system security in Heilongjiang Province. Research methods: improved mutation series model and Elman neural network model. Based on biological immune mechanism, the evaluation index system of cultivated land system safety situation is established. The police situation in Heilongjiang Province from 1995 to 2014 showed a fluctuating upward trend, the alarm degree rose from "no police" to "light police", and then to "middle police". It shows that the evaluation results based on the improved catastrophe series model can highlight the "excellent and bad" characteristics of the evaluation object. 2) introducing Elman neural network to construct the forecast model of cultivated land system safety warning, the precision of test fitting is more than 0.97, and the forecast result is reliable. It shows that the police situation of Heilongjiang Province will increase first and then decrease in the next 20 years. The research conclusion: the study on the security early warning of cultivated land system in Heilongjiang Province based on biological immune mechanism can provide a new way of thinking for the security early warning of cultivated land system in provincial scale.
【作者单位】：东北大学土地管理研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571165) 中央高校基本科研业务费(N130714001,N151406001)
【分类号】：F323.211
【正文快照】： 1引言随着中国城镇化和工业化进程不断稳步推进,激增的建设用地扩张和工业污染促使耕地资源供需矛盾日益加剧、生态环境污染严重,耕地质量不断下降,严重威胁着国家和区域粮食安全以及社会经济稳定。加强以耕地资源为主体的耕地自然生态系统和以人类活动为主体的人类社会经济系

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