我国饲料产品进口增长的三元边际分析

发布时间：2018-01-08 04:07

本文关键词：我国饲料产品进口增长的三元边际分析　出处：《农业技术经济》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国居民收入水平提高带来畜产品消费不断增长,拉动了饲料进口规模的持续扩大。本文利用三元边际分析方法,基于2000—2015年我国共从97个伙伴国进口饲料产品的贸易数据,对饲料产品的进口增长因素及其作用进行研究,利用核密度估计在双边贸易层面验证了结果的稳健性。研究表明,我国饲料产品进口的快速增长主要由数量增长引起,主要原因是饲料产品刚性需求的增加;进口产品种类较多且基本保持稳定,对进口增长的贡献主要表现在短时期的进口波动及部分进口市场上;进口价格历史上长期偏高,由于进口的市场结构优化及产品结构改变,进口价格呈逐渐下降趋势,目前已接近国际市场平均水平;随着贸易规模的扩大,贸易条件正逐步改善。
[Abstract]:The income of residents in China increased consumption of animal products is growing, driven feed imports continue to expand the scale of three yuan. By using the marginal analysis method, from 2000 to 2015, China imported feed products trade data from 97 partners based on the study of imported feed product growth factors and its role in the bilateral trade level to verify the robustness of the results using kernel density estimation. The results show that the rapid growth of China's imports of feed products mainly by the growth in the number of causes, the main reason is the increase of feed products rigid demand; imported product types and more stable, the import growth contribution mainly import fluctuation in a short period of time and part of the import market on the long history; the import price is high, due to the change of market structure and product structure optimization of imports, import prices decreased gradually, at present It is close to the average level of the international market; as the scale of trade expands, the terms of trade are gradually improving.

【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：农业部2014年农业农村资源监测统计(农业信息预警)项目“基于价格决定因素的我国主要农产品分类及其管理措施研究”(农财发2014-52-46)
【分类号】：F324.6;F752.61
【正文快照】： 一、引言在经济快速增长、城镇化水平不断提高的背景下,我国城乡居民的生活水平显著提高,食品消费结构发生很大改变。我国直接粮食消费呈逐年减少的趋势,畜产品消费稳定增长,2012年城镇居民肉禽制品的人均消费量为35.71公斤,比1995年增长50.99%;同期农村居民人均消费量为23.

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