基于灌溉效益和碳足迹的河北省农业可持续发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 18:34

本文关键词：基于灌溉效益和碳足迹的河北省农业可持续发展研究　出处：《河北科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农业是人类社会存在和发展的基础,而水资源和土地资源是农业发展的保障。目前,河北省农业生产面临着多方面的生态问题,如地下水污染、地下漏斗遍布、地下水资源日益短缺,耕地面积减少、土壤肥力下降,等等。因此,实现河北农业可持续发展成为目前亟待解决的重要科学问题之一。基于河北省统计年鉴和投入产出表,从灌溉效益与碳足迹两方面评价了河北农业可持续性。首先探讨了灌溉效益分摊系数的时空差异及其影响因素,随后采用经济投入产出——生命周期法(EIO-LCA)测算了河北省农业碳足迹及其结构,分析了碳足迹在时间上的变化和空间分配特征,并采用EGLS探讨了影响碳排放密度的因素;从产业角度应用投入产出模型计算了河北省2012年农业以及相关产业的碳足迹,衡量了农业及相关产业的碳排放影响力。研究结果表明:(1)从2001年到2012年,河北省灌溉效益分摊系数呈下降趋势,但灌溉效益呈波动上升趋势,表明选用节水作物,改善灌溉条件促进了农业节水和粮食增产。从空间上来看,河北省各县(市)的年均灌溉效益分摊系数总体呈现出东南平原区高,西北山区较低的特点。灌溉、降水这两个因素对河北省灌溉效益分摊系数的影响最为显著,并且有些因子与灌溉效益分摊系数呈负相关关系。(2)化学品与能源消耗是造成农田生态系统碳足迹的两大部分,能源导致的碳足迹波动上升,化学品碳排放相对于能源碳排放比重较低。在河北省11个地级市中,唐山的净碳足迹均值和年均增长率都是最大的,张家口最小;碳足迹密度最大的是唐山,而碳足迹强度最大的是沧州,且唐山是农业碳排放效率较高的地区;另外,能源强度与农业碳足迹密度呈正向关系,农业投资水平对农业碳足迹密度呈负向相关。(3)在整个涉农产业部门中,肥料制造业碳足迹所占比重最大,其次是农业。对农业碳排放拉动作用较大的为农副食品加工业、畜牧业、其它第二产业以及纺织业。农业对第二产业、肥料制造业的碳排放拉动力较强,肥料制造业与农药制造业对其他行业表现出较强的影响力和感应力。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is the basis of the existence and development of human society, and water resources and land resources are the guarantee of agricultural development. At present, agricultural production in Hebei Province is faced with many ecological problems, such as groundwater pollution and underground funnel. There is a growing shortage of groundwater resources, a decrease in the area of cultivated land, a decline in soil fertility, and so on. The realization of sustainable agricultural development in Hebei Province has become one of the most important scientific issues to be solved at present, based on the Statistical Yearbook of Hebei Province and the input-output table. The agricultural sustainability of Hebei was evaluated from the aspects of irrigation benefit and carbon footprint. Firstly, the space-time difference of irrigation benefit sharing coefficient and its influencing factors were discussed. Then, the agricultural carbon footprint and its structure in Hebei Province were calculated by EIO-LCA, and the time variation and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon footprint were analyzed. The factors influencing carbon emission density were discussed by EGLS. In 2012, the carbon footprint of agriculture and related industries in Hebei Province was calculated by using the input-output model from the perspective of industry. The effects of carbon emissions from agriculture and related industries were measured. The results showed that the sharing coefficient of irrigation benefit in Hebei Province decreased from 2001 to 2012. However, the benefit of irrigation is increasing, indicating that the selection of water-saving crops and the improvement of irrigation conditions have promoted agricultural water saving and grain production. The average annual irrigation benefit sharing coefficient of each county (city) in Hebei Province is generally high in the southeast plain area and lower in the northwest mountainous area. Precipitation has the most significant effect on the sharing coefficient of irrigation benefit in Hebei Province. And some factors have a negative correlation with irrigation benefit sharing coefficient. 2) Chemical and energy consumption are two parts of the carbon footprint of farmland ecosystem, and the carbon footprint fluctuation caused by energy increases. In 11 prefectural cities in Hebei Province, the average net carbon footprint and average annual growth rate of Tangshan are the largest, and Zhangjiakou is the smallest. The largest carbon footprint density is Tangshan, and the largest carbon footprint intensity is Cangzhou, and Tangshan is a region with high carbon emission efficiency in agriculture. In addition, there is a positive relationship between energy intensity and agricultural carbon footprint density. There is a negative correlation between agricultural investment level and agricultural carbon footprint density. The second is agriculture. The agricultural carbon emission pulling effect for agricultural food processing industry, animal husbandry, other secondary industries as well as textile industry. Agriculture to the secondary industry, fertilizer manufacturing industry carbon emissions pull power is stronger. Fertilizer industry and pesticide manufacturing industry have strong influence and sensitivity to other industries.
【学位授予单位】：河北科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F327

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