资源与环境双重约束下的农业生产用水效率研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 07:40

本文关键词：资源与环境双重约束下的农业生产用水效率研究　出处：《合肥工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水资源短缺和农业水污染严重早已是制约我国农业经济发展的重要因素,而由于农业用水一直以来都未有一个完善的价格和管理机制,导致农业生产过程中用水效率低下。关注农业生产用水效率,关系着国家农业发展、粮食安全等国计民生问题,因此本文致力于研究农业生产用水效率问题符合我国农业发展现状,更与“十三五”规划提出的农业可持续发展理念相一致。故本文基于2000-2014省际面板数据,利用SBM-Undesirable和Meta-frontier模型研究了农业生产用水效率,并对农业中最重要的粮食作物也进行了相应分析,在此基础上运用随机效应的Tobit模型对农业生产用水效率的影响因素进行了分析。初步取得以下进展:(1)对SBM-Undesirable模型增加约束项,即对投入变量农业用水增加约束,分析发现无论是农业生产用水还是粮食生产用水,有约束条件下的用水效率均高于无约束下的用水效率,然而无约束和有约束下的时间趋势表现基本一致。(2)农业生产用水效率在东、中、西部地区表现分别为东部最高、中部次之、西部最低,和地区经济发展程度吻合;而粮食生产用水效率却不与农业相一致,表现为中部最高、西部次之、东部最低。(3)不同前沿下的农业生产用水效率有较大差异,这可从分析东、中、西部地区技术落差比看出。农业生产用水效率技术落差比东部地区表现最好,但有下降趋势,西部地区表现较平稳处于全国平均水平左右,中部地区波动较大,后期比值较高,超过东、西部;粮食生产用水效率技术落差比则是中部较好,东、西部波动较大,低于中部。(4)研究农业生产用水效率的影响因素发现,农业机械化程度、技术因素、人均农业产值以及农民人均纯收入均对农业生产用水效率有不同程度的显著影响,而值得关注的是单位面积灌溉费、农村居民人均纯收入和农业机械化程度在部分地区影响结果与预期不符,说明节水灌溉设备并没有得到广泛使用,灌溉费及农业水价制定不合理,农民的节水意识普遍性不高。(5)最后就未来农业用水量及用水效率进行预测。本文主要运用逆DEA预测2020年农业用水量,进一步计算2020年农业用水效率。另外,本文还就常见的预测效率方法,即设定情形法,给出了不同情况下的预测结果,并将逆DEA方法与之比较。
[Abstract]:The shortage of water resources and the serious water pollution in agriculture have long been the important factors restricting the development of agricultural economy in China, but there has been no perfect price and management mechanism for agricultural water use. In the process of agricultural production, water use efficiency is low. Paying attention to the efficiency of agricultural production water use is related to the national agricultural development, food security and other issues of the national economy and people's livelihood. Therefore, this paper is devoted to the study of water efficiency in agricultural production in line with the current situation of agricultural development in China. It is also consistent with the concept of agricultural sustainable development put forward in the 13th Five-Year Plan. Therefore, this paper is based on the provincial panel data of 2000-2014. The efficiency of water use in agricultural production was studied by using SBM-Undesirable and Meta-frontier models, and the most important food crops in agriculture were also analyzed. On the basis of this, the factors influencing water use efficiency in agricultural production were analyzed by using the Tobit model of stochastic effect. Add constraints to the SBM-Undesirable model. It is found that the efficiency of water use under the constraint conditions is higher than that under the unconstrained condition, both in agricultural production and in grain production. However, the trend of unconstrained and constrained time trend is basically the same. 2) the efficiency of agricultural production water use is the highest in the east, the highest in the east, the second in the middle and the lowest in the west. And the degree of regional economic development is consistent; However, the efficiency of water use for grain production is not consistent with that of agriculture, which is the highest in the middle, the second in the west and the lowest in the east. There are great differences in the efficiency of water use for agricultural production under different frontiers, which can be analyzed from the east and the middle. The technical drop ratio of the western region shows that the technical drop ratio of agricultural production water use efficiency is the best in the eastern region, but there is a downward trend. The performance of the western region is relatively stable at the national average level, and the central region fluctuates greatly. The ratio of late stage is higher than that of east and west; The technical drop ratio of water use efficiency in grain production is better in the middle, but fluctuating in the east and west, which is lower than that in the middle.) the factors influencing the efficiency of water use in agricultural production are found out, the degree of agricultural mechanization and the technical factors. The per capita agricultural output value and the per capita net income of farmers have significant effects on the efficiency of agricultural production water use, but the irrigation fee per unit area is worthy of attention. The per capita net income of rural residents and the degree of agricultural mechanization in some areas do not agree with the expected results, indicating that water-saving irrigation equipment has not been widely used, irrigation fees and agricultural water prices are not reasonable. Farmers' awareness of water saving is not high. (5) finally, the future agricultural water consumption and water use efficiency are forecasted. This paper mainly uses inverse DEA to forecast agricultural water consumption in 2020. In 2020, the efficiency of agricultural water use is further calculated. In addition, this paper gives the prediction results under different conditions and compares the inverse DEA method with the common prediction efficiency method, I. e., the setting case method.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.213

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