基于马尔科夫转移矩阵的林业产业结构转化趋向研究——以黑龙江省为例

发布时间：2018-01-17 02:13

本文关键词：基于马尔科夫转移矩阵的林业产业结构转化趋向研究——以黑龙江省为例　出处：《林业经济》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着"天保工程"和国有林区商业性禁伐政策的全面实施,黑龙江省林业产业结构面临着全面转型和升级的新形势。在分析了近年来林业系统中涉林产业结构发展状况的基础上,文章利用马尔科夫转移矩阵定量测度林业产业结构转化程度和转化趋向。结果表明:黑龙江省林业产业结构整体转化趋向为"二、一、三"结构模式;林业第一产业内部结构转化趋向为经济林产品的种植和采集、林木的培养和种植;林业第二产业仍保持初级林产品加工为主体的发展模式;第三产业中森林旅游与休闲服务业将逐步成为林业主导产业。最后,在既定林业政策下,针对发现的若干问题给出相应的调整建议。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of the "Natural Conservation Project" and the commercial cutting ban policy in state-owned forest areas. The forestry industry structure in Heilongjiang Province is facing a new situation of overall transformation and upgrading. Based on the analysis of the development of forestry industry structure in the forestry system in recent years. The paper uses Markov transfer matrix to measure quantitatively the degree and trend of forestry industrial structure transformation. The results show that the overall transformation of forestry industry structure in Heilongjiang Province tends to be "two, one, three" structure mode; The internal structure transformation of the primary industry of forestry tends to be the planting and collecting of economic forest products and the cultivation and planting of forest trees; The second industry of forestry still maintains the primary forest product processing as the main development mode; Forest tourism and leisure service industry in the tertiary industry will gradually become the leading forestry industry. Finally, under the established forestry policy, the corresponding adjustment suggestions are given for some problems found.
【作者单位】：东北林业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家统计局统计科学研究项目“基于大数据挖掘的市长公开电话数据的统计分析”(编号:2014LY096) 黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目“基于林业产业生态位的黑龙江国有林区林业产业结构优化与对策研究”(编号:14B123) 国家自然科学基金项目“基于汉语文本数据的统计分析”(编号:11126080)
【分类号】：F326.27
【正文快照】： 黑龙江省是林业资源大省,也是国家重点林区之一。随着我国天然林保护工程的不断推进,1998年黑龙江省林区开始逐步减少林木采伐,同时启动和深化对林业产业转型问题的探索,分批安置了林区富余人员再就业,替代产业也得到初步发展。随着2014年天然林全面禁伐政策的实施,林区进入由

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