我国农村居民平均消费倾向的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 15:29

本文关键词： 农村居民平均消费倾向影响因素绝对收入假说　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：研究居民的消费行为,关键要说明农村居民消费倾向的变化及原因。农村居民消费倾向的研究,对于我国制定适宜的政策来引导农民消费,调整消费结构有一定的指导意义。在确立社会主义市场经济的改革目标以来,我国农村居民平均消费倾向整体呈现下降趋势,在这样的现状下,本文试图通过计量经济学的实证方法探究影响平均消费倾向变动的因素,并进一步验证我国农村居民消费行为符合的消费理论。本文共分为五个部分:第一部分为引言,主要介绍选题背景及意义、国内外研究综述、研究思路、创新点和不足之处。第二部分为相关概念和理论概述,界定农村居民、消费支出和平均消费倾向,并概述西方消费理论。第三部分为农村居民的消费现状,首先,描述社会主义市场经济改革以来,我国农村居民平均消费倾向的变动特征和边际消费倾的逆周期特征;然后,对农村消费和城镇消费、GDP增长进行比较,分析农村消费存在的滞后性;最后,简要分析农村居民消费结构的变动。第四部分为农村居民平均消费倾向变动的实证研究,将绝对收入、持久收入和暂时性收入、相对收入和不确定性进行量化后,通过计量回归,研究它们对平均消费倾向变动的影响,并进行分区域比较,最终得出结论:我国农村居民的消费行为符合绝对收入假说。第五部分为政策建议,通过实证研究结果,提出相应的政策建议:更新农民的消费观念,打破传统消费习惯的束缚;完善收入分配政策,缩小城乡收入差距;完善农村社会保障制度,平滑农村居民消费;完善资本市场,大力发展农村消费信贷。
[Abstract]:To study the consumption behavior of the residents, the key is to explain the changes and reasons of the consumption tendency of the rural residents. The study of the consumption tendency of the rural residents, for our country to formulate appropriate policies to guide the consumption of farmers. The adjustment of consumption structure has certain guiding significance. Since the establishment of the reform goal of socialist market economy, the average consumption tendency of rural residents in China has shown a downward trend as a whole, under such a current situation. This paper attempts to explore the factors that affect the change of average consumption tendency through econometric empirical method. This article is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic, domestic and foreign research review, research ideas. Innovation points and deficiencies. The second part is related concepts and theoretical overview, defining rural residents, consumer expenditure and average consumption tendency, and summarized western consumption theory. The third part is the consumption status of rural residents. First of all, it describes the characteristics of the change of average consumption tendency of rural residents and the counter-cyclical characteristics of marginal consumption tendency since the reform of socialist market economy. Then, the author compares the GDP growth between rural consumption and urban consumption, and analyzes the lag of rural consumption. Finally, the paper briefly analyzes the change of rural residents' consumption structure. 4th part is the empirical study on the change of average consumption tendency of rural residents, which will include absolute income, permanent income and temporary income. After quantitative analysis of relative income and uncertainty, the influence of relative income and uncertainty on the change of average consumption tendency is studied by means of econometric regression, and compared by sub-region. Finally, the conclusion is drawn: the consumption behavior of rural residents in China accords with the absolute income hypothesis. Part 5th is the policy recommendations. Through the empirical research results, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward: to update the farmers' consumption concept. Break the shackles of traditional consumption habits; Improve the income distribution policy and narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas; Perfecting the rural social security system and smoothing the consumption of rural residents; We will improve the capital market and vigorously develop rural consumer credit.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.8

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