阜平大枣产业发展影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-22 11:27

本文关键词： 阜平县大枣产业影响因素 SWOT分析法 logistic模型　出处：《河北农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：阜平县素有“中国大枣第一乡”之称,大枣产业作为阜平县的支柱产业,有了长足发展。但就近几年发展来看,仍有诸多制约阜平大枣产业发展的因素,导致阜平大枣产业发展放缓。因此,深入探究阜平大枣产业发展的影响因素已经成为当务之急。本文基于对阜平枣农的实地调查,探明限制阜平大枣产业发展的问题,以促进阜平大枣产业发展、繁荣阜平县域经济。本研究采取实地调查的研究方法,发放调查问卷150份、回收145份,有效率为96.7%。针对阜平大枣产业发展现状,运用SWOT分析法对阜平大枣产业的发展进行定性分析;运用Logistic模型,定量分析性别、年龄、文化程度等因素对枣农种植意愿的影响;运用对比分析法对自然因素进行分析。得出如下结果:(1)阜平县为温带大陆性季风气候,雨热同期拥有发展大枣产业良好的自然条件;阜平大枣享誉国内外,市场前景广阔;政府部门出台了一系列有利于大枣产业发展的土地、贷款等方面的优惠政策;不利条件在于:目前阜平县大枣生产主要以一家一户的分散经营为主,管理水平和产业化水平低;由于枣农观念落后和信息不畅造成营销不畅;经济落后,接受过中高等教育的青年都外出务工,不愿从事枣生产,缺乏高级人才。(2)影响枣农种植意愿因素中,是否参加过相关培训和有无政策支持的回归系数分别为4.27、3.3,对枣农种植意愿影响最显著;年龄、种植规模、枣收入比例回归系数分别为-2.64、1.18、0.203,影响较为显著;性别、文化程度和是否加入合作社对枣农种植意愿影响最小。本研究得出如下结论:阜平发展大枣产业优势大于劣势;外部促进因素如政府扶持能明显提高枣农种植意愿,枣农内部个人因素次之。针对上述结论,提出如下建议:阜平大枣产业发展应提高果品质量、加大宣传力度,根据市场需求积极开发枣深加工产品;政府通过多种途径加大对大枣产业的支持,充分发挥产业优势招商引资;扶持和引导枣加工龙头企业向外向型企业发展,积极开发适合国外不同消费群体的系列产品。
[Abstract]:Fuping County is known as "the first township of Chinese jujube". As the pillar industry of Fuping County, the date industry has made great progress. But in recent years, there are still many factors restricting the development of Fuping jujube industry. As a result, the development of Fuping jujube industry slowed down. Therefore, it has become an urgent matter to deeply explore the factors affecting the development of Fuping jujube industry. This paper is based on the field investigation of Fuping jujube farmers. In order to promote the development of Fuping jujube industry and prosper the economy of Fuping county, this study adopted the method of field investigation, distributed 150 questionnaires and recovered 145 copies. The effective rate is 96.70.In view of the present situation of the development of Fuping jujube industry, the development of Fuping jujube industry is qualitatively analyzed by using SWOT analysis method. Logistic model was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of sex, age and education on the planting intention of jujube farmers. The results are as follows: Fuping County is a temperate continental monsoon climate with good natural conditions for developing jujube industry in the same period. Fuping jujube enjoys a good reputation at home and abroad and has a broad market prospect. The government has issued a series of preferential policies on land and loans, which are beneficial to the development of jujube industry. The disadvantage lies in: at present, the production of jujube in Fuping County is mainly based on the decentralized management of one household, and the level of management and industrialization is low; Because the concept of jujube farmers is backward and the information is not smooth, the marketing is not smooth; Economic backwardness, the young people who have received secondary and higher education all go out to work, do not want to engage in jujube production, lack of senior talent. The regression coefficients of whether they had participated in relevant training or not and whether they were supported by policies were 4.27 and 3.3, respectively, which had the most significant influence on the planting willingness of jujube farmers. The regression coefficients of age, planting scale and the proportion of jujube income were -2.64 ~ 1.180.203, respectively. Gender, education level and whether to join the cooperative have the least influence on jujube farmers' willingness to plant. The conclusion of this study is as follows: the advantage of developing jujube industry in Fuping is greater than the disadvantage; External factors such as government support can significantly improve the willingness of jujube farmers, jujube farmers internal personal factors. In view of the above conclusions, put forward the following suggestions: the development of Fuping jujube industry should improve the quality of fruit. Increase publicity, according to market demand to actively develop date processing products; The government should increase the support to the jujube industry through various ways, and give full play to the advantages of the industry to attract investment; Support and guide the development of jujube processing leading enterprises to export-oriented enterprises and actively develop a series of products suitable for different foreign consumer groups.
【学位授予单位】：河北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.13

【参考文献】