中国农村金融发展对农村居民消费影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-27 07:20

本文关键词： 农村金融发展农村居民消费门限回归分位数回归　出处：《吉林财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济发展步入“新常态”,我国经济增长模式发生转变,投资和出口的GDP占比逐渐降低,消费逐渐成为推动经济增长的主力。尤其表现在次贷危机后,经济增长更加依赖消费。然而,就2015年而言,美国、韩国、日本居民最终消费率为0.68、0.49、0.57,而我国居民最终消费率仅为0.38,可见,我国消费抑制现象明显。消费抑制是我国经济增长的长期制约因素。在我国二元经济结构背景下,城镇居民消费逐步饱和,深度挖掘农村居民消费刻不容缓。金融发展对消费具有重要影响,这一观点在学术界已达成共识,但具体的影响方式莫衷一是。近年来中国农村金融业虽然取得了显著发展,但是距满足农村居民的金融需求还有较大差距,主要表现为严重的农村金融排斥现象。本文旨在探究我国农村金融发展对农村居民消费的影响方式,并力求从农村金融发展的角度对改善农村消费提供建议。本文在理论分析基础上,实证分析中国农村金融发展对农村居民消费影响。首先,回顾国内外学者关于农村金融发展影响农村居民消费影响的主要研究成果,梳理农村金融发展理论及农村居民消费理论的主要论点,构建实证研究理论基础。然后,进行实证分析,从现状分析开始,运用相关统计分析方法进行定量研究。采用描述性统计分析方法,利用相关数据对农村金融发展规模和发展效率,农村居民消费总量、消费倾向以及城乡居民消费差距四个方面现实状况进行分析,以了解我国农村金融和农村居民消费发展基本现状和主要不足。根据不同分析目标选取不同指标,通过建立门限回归模型分析农村金融发展对农村居民消费的非线性影响,并运用分位数回归模型和多项式分布滞后模型分析农村金融发展对农村居民消费的具体影响。实证分析表明:第一,我国农村金融发展规模已经满足农村需求,但是发展效率偏低从而抑制农村居民消费;第二,农村存款和农村保险服务增加显著抑制了农村居民消费增长,农村居民消费受过去的消费习惯和城镇居民的消费习惯影响;第三,农村金融发展没有有效缓解农村居民消费抑制的现象,农村居民的边际消费倾向对金融服务变化反应不敏感。最后,根据实证结果从农村金融发展角度提出促进农村居民消费的相关建议。
[Abstract]:Economic development has entered the "new normal", China's economic growth model has changed, the proportion of investment and exports of GDP has gradually decreased, consumption has gradually become the main force to promote economic growth, especially after the subprime mortgage crisis. Economic growth is more dependent on consumption. In 2015, however, the final consumption rate in the United States, South Korea and Japan was 0. 68 or 0. 49 per 0. 57. However, the final consumption rate of Chinese residents is only 0.38. It can be seen that the phenomenon of consumption inhibition is obvious. Consumption inhibition is the long-term constraint factor of China's economic growth. Under the background of the dual economic structure of our country. The consumption of urban residents is gradually saturated and it is urgent to dig deeply into the consumption of rural residents. Financial development has an important impact on consumption, which has reached a consensus in academic circles. In recent years, China's rural financial industry has made remarkable development, but there is still a big gap between meeting the financial needs of rural residents. The main manifestation of this phenomenon is the phenomenon of rural financial exclusion. This paper aims to explore the impact of rural financial development on the consumption of rural residents. And try to improve rural consumption from the perspective of rural financial development. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of rural financial development on rural consumption. Review the domestic and foreign scholars on the rural financial development of rural residents consumption impact of the main research results, combing the rural financial development theory and rural consumption theory of the main arguments. Construct the theoretical basis of empirical research. Then, the empirical analysis, starting from the current situation analysis, using the relevant statistical analysis method for quantitative research. Using descriptive statistical analysis method. Using the relevant data to analyze the scale and efficiency of rural financial development, the total consumption of rural residents, consumption trends and the consumption gap between urban and rural residents. In order to understand the basic status of rural finance and rural residents consumption development and the main deficiencies. According to different analysis objectives to select different indicators. Through the establishment of threshold regression model to analyze the nonlinear impact of rural financial development on rural residents' consumption. The quantile regression model and polynomial distribution lag model are used to analyze the impact of rural financial development on rural residents' consumption. The empirical analysis shows that: first, the scale of rural financial development has met rural demand. But the development efficiency is on the low side so as to restrain the rural residents' consumption; Second, the increase of rural deposits and rural insurance services significantly inhibited the growth of rural residents' consumption, which was influenced by the past consumption habits and the consumption habits of urban residents. Third, rural financial development has not effectively alleviated the phenomenon of rural residents' consumption inhibition. The marginal consumption tendency of rural residents is not sensitive to changes in financial services. Finally. According to the empirical results from the perspective of rural financial development, the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote rural residents' consumption.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.8;F832.35

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