南疆县域农民收入贫困特征分析

发布时间：2018-02-16 09:03

本文关键词： 南疆三地州农民纯收入时序演变特征空间格局夜光遥感　出处：《新疆师范大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文选取南疆三地州19个国家重点贫困县市为研究区,以县域农民纯收入为研究对象,利用SPSS软件对1985年~2013年农民纯收入数据进行统计,分析其时序变化特征,同时,利用ArcGIS软件的空间统计分析功能,对农民纯收入的空间格局特征进行分析;以DMSP/OLS灯光数据为数据源,结合ArcGIS软件和空间统计分析方法,以及夜光遥感技术,分析南疆三地州夜晚灯光亮度特征及其空间扩张强度特征,从而探讨农民纯收入对夜晚灯光的响应;基于MOD13Q1数据和民族人口数据,结合SPSS软件和相关性分析方法,分析农民纯收入与NDVI和民族人口的相关性特征,从而对农民纯收入进行预测。研究结果如下:(1)南疆三地州19个重点贫困县市的农民收入由1985年的241.38元增至2013年的5010.33元。各县市农民收入整体上均呈上升趋势,农民人均纯收入存在时间滞后效应,农民人均纯收入分配不平衡性缓慢增大,当纯收入分配达到最大平衡或最大不平衡时,之后会向相反方向发展,收入向两极化发展,同时表现为两年的周期。(2)县域农民人均纯收入空间格局不存在稳定的相关性,不同时段次热点区和次冷点区转换速度较快,热点区和冷点区转换速度较慢,各类型区均存在跃迁现象。(3)灯光强度可以在长时段的条件下,反映出南疆三地州19个重点贫困县市农民收入的变化情况,南疆三地州灯光强度的分布极为稀疏,主要分为三个区域,一个以疏附县为中心,扩张方向为东北,一个以叶城县和莎车县为中心,扩张方向为北,另一个以和田县为中心,扩张方向为西南和北。应用灯光数据寻找沙漠腹地的绿洲或人迹意义重大。(4)南疆三地州西部县市农民收入主要受维吾尔族和汉族人口影响,东部县市农民收入主要受维吾尔族、汉族、回族人口影响。对于和田地区而言,各县农民收入与NDVI的相关性一般,相关系数最高仅为0.656。在保证率85%的假设下,结合民族人口与NDVI计算收入预测指数,对农民收入的预测精度高达0.875,预测表明,2023年农民人均纯收入最高的是和田县,达12492.05元,最低的是洛浦县,农民收入为8131.2元。
[Abstract]:In this paper, 19 poverty-stricken counties and cities in three states of southern Xinjiang are selected as the research areas, and the net income of farmers in the county is taken as the research object. The data of farmers' net income from 1985 to 2013 are analyzed by SPSS software, and the characteristics of their time series change are analyzed. The spatial pattern characteristics of farmers' net income are analyzed by using the spatial statistical analysis function of ArcGIS software, the data source of DMSP/OLS light is used as data source, and the methods of ArcGIS software and spatial statistical analysis, as well as the nocturnal remote sensing technology, are combined. This paper analyzes the luminance characteristics and spatial expansion intensity characteristics of night lighting in three states of southern Xinjiang, so as to explore the response of farmers' net income to night lighting, based on MOD13Q1 data and ethnic population data, combined with SPSS software and correlation analysis method. This paper analyzes the correlation characteristics of peasants' net income with NDVI and ethnic population. The results of the study are as follows: 1) the income of farmers in 19 key poor counties in three states of southern Xinjiang increased from 241.38 yuan in 1985 to 5010.33 yuan in 2013. The overall income of farmers in all counties and cities showed an upward trend. The per capita net income of farmers has the effect of time lag, and the imbalance of the distribution of per capita net income of farmers increases slowly. When the distribution of net income reaches the maximum equilibrium or the largest imbalance, it will then develop in the opposite direction, and the income will be polarized. At the same time, there is no stable correlation between the spatial pattern of per capita net income of county farmers, the conversion speed of sub-hot spot and sub-cold spot area is faster, and the conversion speed of hot spot and cold spot area is slower than that of other sub-hot area and sub-cold spot area, at the same time, the spatial pattern of per capita net income of county farmers is not stable. The light intensity can reflect the change of farmers' income in 19 key poor counties and cities in three regions of southern Xinjiang for a long time, and the distribution of light intensity in the three states of southern Xinjiang is extremely sparse. It is mainly divided into three regions: one is centered in Shufu County, the other is in the northeast, one is Yecheng County and Shaqa County, the other is north, and the other is Hetian County. The expansion direction is southwest and north. Using light data to find the oasis or human trace in the desert hinterland is of great significance.) the income of farmers in the western counties and cities of southern Xinjiang is mainly influenced by the Uygur and Han population, while the income of the eastern counties and cities is mainly affected by the Uyghurs. For the Hotan area, the correlation between farmers' income and NDVI is general, and the correlation coefficient is only 0.656. Under the assumption of guarantee rate of 85%, combining ethnic population with NDVI, the income prediction index is calculated. In 2023, the net income per capita of farmers was the highest in Hetian County, which reached 12492.05 yuan, and the lowest was Luopu County, with an income of 8131.2 yuan.
【学位授予单位】：新疆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.8

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