乌鲁木齐市耕地面积变化态势及驱动机制分析

发布时间：2018-02-16 09:23

本文关键词： 乌鲁木齐市耕地驱动机制变化态势多元回归分析　出处：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：[目的]耕地资源是我国乃至世界重要的土地资源,保护耕地数量不减少、质量不降低是我们每个公民义不容易的责任和义务。当前国内外对耕地保护的研究大多仅停留在时间上的比较以及定量的分析,很少对指标因素和时间进行横纵向比较。[方法]文章基于乌鲁木齐市2004~2013年耕地面积,从全市人口、经济、政策投资及科技与城建等4个大类出发,选取18个指标,分析了乌鲁木齐市耕地面积的变化态势和规律。采用主成分和多元回归的分析方法,揭示了耕地面积变化的驱动机制;采用相应的指标体系构建耕地面积变化驱动模型。[结果]研究表明:近10年乌鲁木齐市耕地面积呈减少-增多-减少趋势,而GDP、居民储蓄存款、市区总人口及财政支出是影响耕地面积变化的主要因素。[结论]鉴于此,该研究为乌鲁木齐市土地资源的合理配置、土地利用规划以及耕地资源的科学利用提供决策依据,为实现当地资源、环境与经济的可持续发展提供了新的思路。
[Abstract]:[objective] cultivated land resources are important land resources in China and the world, and the amount of cultivated land should not be reduced. It is not an easy duty and obligation for every citizen to keep the quality down. At present, most of the research on cultivated land protection at home and abroad only focuses on the comparison of time and quantitative analysis. The index factors and time are rarely compared horizontally and longitudinally. [methods] based on the cultivated land area of Urumqi from 2004 to 2013, this paper selects 18 indexes from 4 categories of population, economy, policy investment, science and technology and urban construction. The change trend and law of cultivated land area in Urumqi are analyzed. The driving mechanism of cultivated land area change is revealed by principal component and multivariate regression analysis method. Using the corresponding index system to construct the driving model of cultivated land area change. [results] the study shows that the cultivated land area of Urumqi city shows a trend of decreasing, increasing and decreasing in the past 10 years, while GDP, savings deposits of residents, The total urban population and financial expenditure are the main factors affecting the change of cultivated land area. [conclusion] in view of this, the study provides the decision basis for rational allocation of land resources, land use planning and scientific utilization of cultivated land resources in Urumqi. It provides a new idea for the sustainable development of local resources, environment and economy.
【作者单位】：新疆农业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“塔里木盆地矿-农复合区矿产资源利用补偿调控机制研究”(08BJY061)
【分类号】：F323.211

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