土地定向储备模式下地块选择研究

发布时间：2018-02-16 10:44

本文关键词： 土地定向储备地块选择土地利用效率出让价格灰色预测　出处：《华中科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程的不断加快,城市基础设施建设面临着快速发展的迫切要求。各地均面临着城市建设融资难的巨大压力,提出将城市重大基础设施建设与土地储备机制相结合的融资思路,即土地定向储备融资模式,由于储备地块的选择是土地定向储备融资模式实施的关键环节,因此,研究如何合理选择储备地块对保证基础设施项目建设融资目标的实现有实际意义。本文首先分析了土地定向储备融资模式的融资机制和运行流程,阐述了该模式下地块选择的实施步骤。首先对储备地块做出区位选择,引入土地利用效率指标反映地块的综合区位情况,运用数据包络分析方法和Malmquist指数构建城市土地利用效率评价模型,测算和评价土地利用的静态和动态效率,以较全面地从宏观上反映区域土地的经济产出情况,合理选择储备地块所处区位。其次是具体储备地块的选择,利用灰色预测理论改进基准地价系数调整法,构建GM(1,1)预测模型,预测未来的地价指数,将基准地价调整到交易日期时点的地价,实现土地出让价格的中长期预测,从而计算出具体土地将来上市交易的收益,为选择具体储备地块提供依据和参考。土地定向储备融资模式是新的融资模式,在该模式下研究储备地块区位如何合理选取以及土地储备出让价格的预测,可为政府城市基础设施融资创新模式的决策及管理提供量化的支持和工具,促进城市基础设施建设融资创新模式的完善。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the construction of urban infrastructure is facing the urgent need of rapid development. The paper puts forward the financing idea of combining the construction of major urban infrastructure with the land reserve mechanism, that is, the financing mode of land directional reserve, because the choice of reserve land is the key link of the implementation of land oriented reserve financing mode. It is of practical significance to study how to select the reserve land reasonably to ensure the realization of the financing target of infrastructure project construction. Firstly, this paper analyzes the financing mechanism and operation process of the land oriented reserve financing mode. This paper expounds the implementing steps of land block selection under this model. Firstly, the location selection of reserve land is made, and the land use efficiency index is introduced to reflect the comprehensive location situation of land block. Using the method of data envelopment analysis and Malmquist index to construct the evaluation model of urban land use efficiency, to calculate and evaluate the static and dynamic efficiency of land use, so as to reflect the economic output of regional land in a more comprehensive way. The location of the reserve land block is reasonably selected. Secondly, the specific reserve land block is selected. The adjustment method of the benchmark land price coefficient is improved by using the grey forecasting theory, and the GM1- (1) forecasting model is constructed to predict the land price index in the future. Adjust the base land price to the land price at the point of the trading date, realize the medium and long term forecast of the land transfer price, and then calculate the income of the specific land market transaction in the future. In order to provide the basis and reference for the selection of specific reserve plots, land directional reserve financing model is a new financing model. Under this model, how to select the location of reserve land and how to forecast the price of land reserve transfer are studied. It can provide quantitative support and tools for the decision-making and management of the government's innovative mode of financing urban infrastructure, and promote the perfection of the innovative mode of financing for urban infrastructure construction.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

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