柳州市土地利用变化的碳排放效应及结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 21:35

本文选题：碳排放　切入点：碳排放强度　出处：《华中农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候变暖已经成为全世界普遍关注的坏境问题。引发这个问题的关键点是因为二氧化碳的排放量越来越多。本世纪以来,陆地生态系统碳循环问题已然成为全世界有关学术范围内的重点研究领域。过往研究结果表明,由于人类活动所导致的用地类型由一种方式向另一种方向的改变是引起气候变暖的第二重要原因,排在燃烧化石能源的后面。由于各种类型用地对于碳排放的作用是不相同的,由此可以研究各种用地类型对于碳排放的不同作用,从而能进一步的探讨土地利用的改变对于碳排放效应的影响作用。在此基础上,对于减少碳排放目标,调整土地利用利用结构、合理利用土地资源具有相当重要的理论与实践意义。本文以国内外相关学者的研究为基础,以广西重工业城市——柳州市为实证,根据柳州市2003-2012年的土地变更数据和能源消耗数据以及相关社会经济数据,首先构建计算土地利用碳排放的数学模型,分析柳州市2003-2012年之间的土地构成与碳排放之间的关系,从碳排放量、碳强度、碳足迹与碳生态补偿量四个角度探讨柳州市10年的土地利用碳排放效应。随后,运用灰色系统理论关联测度模型对土地构成与碳排放之间进行测度,通过两者之间相关性的差异研究降低土地利用碳排放的有效措施。随后,建设多种目标的线性规划数学模型,以碳减排为导向,结合土地利用的经济与生态收益,对柳州市的土地利用构成进行调整,探讨符合柳州市的低碳发展的土地利用建议与措施。本文研究结果如下:(1)柳州市的土地利用碳排放总量出现了先快速增长后缓慢增长的趋势,以2009年为分界点。建设用地是主要的碳源,林地是主要的碳汇,园地、草地、水域及其他未利用地的碳汇功能较弱。建设用地的碳排放能力远远大于林地等生产性土地的碳吸收能力。因此,柳州市要实现碳减排,不仅要增加具有碳汇功能土地的面积,更主要的是要降低建设用地的碳排放量。(2)2003-2012年柳州市的碳排放强度总体上呈下降趋势,年平均降低5.64%。国内生产总值年平均增长42.62%,远远大于碳排放强度的下降率。同时,2003-2012年柳州市的人均碳足迹和碳生态赤字都在逐年增长,其生态承载力受到巨大的土地利用碳排放压力。未来柳州市不仅要控制碳排放总量,同时要降低碳排放强度,提高柳州市的碳生态承载力。(3)不同土地利用类型与碳排放的关联度不一样,建设用地与碳排放的关联系数最大,其次是林地。因此可通过调整土地利用结构达到碳减排的目的。(4)通过土地利用结构的优化,可以减少土地利用碳排放29.89万吨,减少土地利用经济效益3.25亿元,增加土地利用生态效益22.12亿元,基本满足了柳州市2020年经济发展、粮食安全与生态保护的要求。(5)从碳源和碳汇两方面提出降低土地利用碳排放,推进低碳土地利用的配套措施。
[Abstract]:Global warming has become a global concern. The key to this problem is the increasing emissions of carbon dioxide. The carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems has become a major area of academic research around the world. Previous studies have shown that. Because the change in land types from one way to the other is the second most important cause of global warming, after the burning of fossil energy, because the effects of various types of land on carbon emissions are different, From this, we can study the different effects of different land types on carbon emissions, so that we can further explore the impact of land-use change on carbon emissions, and on this basis, to reduce carbon emissions targets, It is of great theoretical and practical significance to adjust the structure of land use and make rational use of land resources. Based on the research of relevant scholars at home and abroad, this paper takes Liuzhou City, a heavy industrial city of Guangxi, as an example. According to the land change data, energy consumption data and related social and economic data from 2003 to 2012 in Liuzhou City, a mathematical model for calculating the carbon emissions of land use is constructed to analyze the relationship between land composition and carbon emissions in Liuzhou City from 2003 to 2012. The effects of land use carbon emissions in Liuzhou during the past 10 years are discussed from the perspectives of carbon emission, carbon intensity, carbon footprint and carbon ecological compensation. Subsequently, the relationship between land composition and carbon emissions is measured by using the grey system theory correlation measurement model. This paper studies the effective measures to reduce land use carbon emissions through the difference of correlation between them. Then, a linear programming mathematical model with multiple objectives is built, which is guided by carbon emission reduction and combines the economic and ecological benefits of land use. To adjust the composition of land use in Liuzhou City, This paper discusses the suggestions and measures of land use in line with the low-carbon development of Liuzhou. The results of this study are as follows: (1) the total amount of land use carbon emissions in Liuzhou City has shown a tendency of rapid growth first and then slow increase. 2009 as the demarcation point. Construction land is the main carbon source, forest land is the main carbon sink, garden land, grassland, The carbon sink function of water area and other unused land is weak. The carbon emission capacity of construction land is much larger than that of productive land such as forest land. Therefore, in order to achieve carbon emission reduction in Liuzhou City, it is necessary not only to increase the area of land with carbon sink function, More importantly, it is necessary to reduce the carbon emissions from construction land. The intensity of carbon emissions from 2003 to 2012 in Liuzhou City generally shows a downward trend. The average annual GDP growth rate is 42.62%, which is far greater than the decrease rate of carbon emission intensity. At the same time, the per capita carbon footprint and carbon ecological deficit of Liuzhou City from 2003 to 2012 are increasing year by year. In the future, Liuzhou will not only control the total amount of carbon emissions, but also reduce the intensity of carbon emissions. The correlation degree between different land use types and carbon emissions is different, and the correlation coefficient between construction land and carbon emissions is the largest. The second is woodland. Therefore, by adjusting the structure of land use to achieve the aim of reducing carbon emissions, the land use structure can be optimized to reduce carbon emissions of land use by 298,900 tons, and the economic benefits of land use can be reduced by 325 million yuan. The increase of land use ecological benefit of two billion two hundred and twelve million yuan basically met the requirements of economic development, food security and ecological protection of Liuzhou City in 2020. The measures to reduce the carbon emissions of land use and to promote low carbon land use were put forward from the two aspects of carbon source and carbon sink.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

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