中国农产品出口增长二元边际及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 04:04

本文选题：农产品　切入点：二元边际　出处：《华中农业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来,中国农产品出口额保持了良好的增长势头,1995年中国农产品出口额为150亿美元,到2014时已经增长到719.6亿美元,年均增长率达8.16%。虽然中国农产品出口额增长迅速,但是每逢面对经济危机冲击,农产品出口额都会出现剧烈波动。1997年东南亚金融危机使农产品出口增长率由1997年7.69%下降到1998年的-12.50%。2008年全球金融危机使农产品出口增长率由2007年的19.27%下降到2008年的9.43%,2009年为-2.25%。这充分暴露了中国农产品出口增长的不稳定性、高风险性和脆弱性。经济危机冲击导致的中国农产品出口剧烈波动使得人们不断反思现行的农产品出口增长方式。以企业异质性模型为代表的新新贸易理论为我们研究出口增长现象提供了一个新的视角。该理论认为贸易的增长主要依靠两条途径实现,即集约边际增长和扩展边际增长,集约边际意味着出口专业化,扩展边际意味着出口多样化。那么,中国农产品的出口增长是如何实现的呢?哪些因素会影响该路径农产品的出口增长呢?不同因素对集约边际和扩展边际的影响有何差异?中国农产品出口增长的脆弱性与二元边际有何联系?在“一带一路”建设背景下,这些问题值得深入探讨。本文首先对二元边际理论基础及实证类文献进行了梳理,然后分析了中国农产品进出口额变化趋势、市场结构和产品结构,接着采用H-K测度方法测度中国农产品出口增长的二元边际,以确定中国农产品出口增长路径,随后采用面板模型考察了中国农产品出口增长二元边际影响因素,着重探讨中国农产品出口增长脆弱性的原因,最后总结结论并提出政策建议。实证结果表明,1995~2014年期间中国农产品出口增长由集约边际和扩展边际共同拉动,但集约边际起主要的贡献作用,其贡献率高达60%以上。经济规模对集约边际有显著的正影响,农业增加值占GDP的比重、贸易成本和经济危机对集约边际有显著的负影响。农业增加值占GDP的比重和与中国签订区域经济一体化协定对扩展边际有显著的正影响,而贸易成本和人均GDP年增长率对扩展边际有显著的负影响。经济危机对集约边际有显著的负影响,扩展边际具有“稳定器”作用,这为解释中国农产品出口增长脆弱性问题提供了新视角并具有丰富政策含义。根据研究结论,为了推动中国农产品出口持续健康发展,本文提出以下几个方面的政策建议:一是发展农产品出口多样化,调整扩展边际结构;二是提高农产品附加值,实现价格优势;三是提高贸易便利化水平,降低贸易成本;四是积极深化推动贸易自由区建设;五是合理选择出口市场。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, China's agricultural exports have maintained a good momentum of growth, from 15 billion US dollars in 1995 to 71.96 billion US dollars in 2014. The average annual growth rate is 8.16%. Although China's exports of agricultural products are growing rapidly, but every time the economic crisis strikes, In 1997, the financial crisis in Southeast Asia reduced the growth rate of agricultural exports from 7.69% in 1997 to -12.50.2008 in 1998. As a result of the global financial crisis of 1998, the growth rate of agricultural exports dropped from 19.27% in 1998 to 19.27% in 1998. On 2009, it was -2.25. this fully exposed the instability of China's agricultural export growth. High risk and vulnerability. The sharp fluctuation of Chinese agricultural product export caused by economic crisis makes people constantly reflect on the current agricultural product export growth mode. The new and new trade theory represented by enterprise heterogeneity model is our new trade theory. They offer a new perspective on the phenomenon of export growth, which argues that trade growth is mainly achieved in two ways. That is, intensive marginal growth and expansion of marginal growth, intensive marginal means export specialization, expansion of marginal means export diversification. So, how to achieve the export growth of Chinese agricultural products? What factors will affect the path of export growth of agricultural products? What are the differences in the influence of different factors on the intensive and extended margins? What is the relationship between the fragility of China's agricultural export growth and the dualistic margin? Under the background of "Belt and Road" construction, these problems are worth discussing deeply. This paper firstly combs the dualistic marginal theory basis and empirical literature, then analyzes the trend of China's agricultural product import and export. Market structure and product structure, then using H-K measure method to measure the dual marginal of China's agricultural product export growth, to determine the path of China's agricultural product export growth. Then using panel model to investigate the dualistic marginal factors of China's agricultural product export growth, focusing on the reasons for the fragility of China's agricultural product export growth. The empirical results show that the export growth of agricultural products in China during the period from 1995 to 2014 was driven by both the intensive marginal and the extended marginal, but the intensive marginal played a major contribution. The contribution rate is over 60%. The economic scale has a significant positive effect on the intensive marginal value, and agricultural added value accounts for the proportion of GDP. The trade cost and economic crisis have a significant negative impact on the intensive marginal. The ratio of agricultural value added to GDP and the signing of regional economic integration agreement with China have a significant positive impact on the expansion of the marginal. However, trade costs and per capita GDP growth rate have a significant negative impact on the expansion margin, which has a "stabilizer" effect, and the economic crisis has a significant negative impact on the intensive marginal. This provides a new perspective and rich policy implications for explaining the fragility of China's agricultural export growth. According to the conclusions of the study, in order to promote the sustained and healthy development of China's agricultural exports, This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first, to develop the diversification of agricultural products exports, adjust and expand the marginal structure; second, to increase the added value of agricultural products and realize price advantages; third, to improve the level of trade facilitation and reduce trade costs; Fourth, actively deepen the construction of free zones for trade, and fifthly, rationally select export markets.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62;F323.7

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