基于灰色理论的内蒙古农牧户收入预测关联分析系统研究与实现

发布时间：2018-03-11 06:05

本文选题：农村牧区　切入点：灰包预测　出处：《内蒙古农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农民问题是三农问题的主要问题,而农民问题的关键是如何增加农民收入,因此,增加农民收入是农业和农村发展的根本出发点和落脚点。随着中国经济的不断发展,内蒙古经济一直发展良好,并且内蒙古经济的增长速度多次在全国各省市位列第一。但是内蒙古农牧民纯收入的增长速度与全国农民收入增长的速度之问还存在一定的距离,甚至内蒙古农牧民收入增速远远低于一些省份,研究预测内蒙古农牧民收入发展趋势以及分析影响收入增长的重要因素,并依此提出增加内蒙古农民收入增长的政策方针刻不容缓。论文来源于内蒙古自治区党委农办的一个研究项目,论文基于党委农办采集的历史的、有参考价值的内蒙古农牧民家庭收入信息,对常用预测算法进行研究分析,选取适合历史数据特性的算法。最终采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对内蒙古农牧民未来两年收入进行预测以及预测各盟市未来两年农民人均收入情况,并且采用灰色关联分析方法对内蒙古农牧民收入构成进行关联度计算,对结果进行检验,分析影响内蒙古农民收入的主要因素,提出促进内蒙古农牧民收入的有用的建议。最终,实现了内蒙古农村牧区观察点预测关联分析子系统,该系统采用了B/S的体系结构、MVC开发模式,运用Servlet技术、JSP技术、JDBC数据库访问技术,通过采用JFreeChart图表绘制类库,用柱状图直观明地显示实际数据,用折线图将预测值与实际值进行对比。其主要功能包括：统计内蒙古农户牧户户均收入并有效地预测未来两年收入状况,同时,统计出12个盟市的农民人均收入情况,并对其进行预测；统计内蒙古农户牧户收入构成,并对其进行灰色关联分析。
[Abstract]:The farmer problem is the main problem of the three agricultural problems, and the key problem of the peasant problem is how to increase the farmer's income. Therefore, increasing the farmer's income is the basic starting point and the foothold of the agriculture and the rural development. With the development of China's economy, The economy of Inner Mongolia has been developing well, and the economic growth rate of Inner Mongolia has been ranked first in all provinces and cities many times. However, there is still a certain distance between the growth rate of net income of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia and the growth rate of farmers' income throughout the country. Even the income growth rate of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia is far lower than that of some provinces. The research predicts the development trend of income of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia and analyzes the important factors affecting income growth. According to this, the policy and policy of increasing the income of farmers in Inner Mongolia is urgent. The paper comes from a research project of the Agricultural Affairs Office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous region Party Committee, and the paper is based on the history of the collection by the Agricultural Affairs Office of the Party Committee. The information of family income of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia, which has reference value, is studied and analyzed in common prediction algorithms. Finally, the grey prediction model is used to predict the income of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia in the next two years, and the income of farmers in the next two years in each league city is forecasted. And the grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate the income composition of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia, to test the results, and to analyze the main factors that affect the income of farmers in Inner Mongolia. Some useful suggestions for promoting the income of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia are put forward. Finally, the forecast correlation analysis subsystem of observation point in Inner Mongolia rural pastoral area is realized. The system adopts the system structure of B / S and MVC development mode. Using Servlet technology and JDBC-database access technology, the class library is drawn by using JFreeChart chart, and the actual data is displayed intuitively by histogram. The main functions of this paper are: counting the average income of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia and effectively predicting the income situation in the next two years, and at the same time, counting the per capita income of farmers in 12 league cities. The income composition of farmers and pastoral households in Inner Mongolia is analyzed by grey correlation analysis.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.8

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