浙江省山区农户生计脆弱性研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 00:15

本文选题：浙江省　切入点：山区　出处：《浙江农林大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地处中国东南沿海的浙江省经济总体发展水平较高,但是地区差异较为显著,特别是位于中部和西南部的广大山区经济相对滞后,农民的生计状况堪忧。降低山区农民生计的脆弱性,改善农户的生计状况,实现生计的可持续发展,不仅对山区社会经济可持续发展和建设“两富”现代化浙江具有重大的现实意义,而且对全省统筹区域发展以及构建和谐社会具有重要战略意义。论文基于浙江省四个山区样本县(市)民生监测调研数据,统计描述分析样本区域农户社会经济发展概况、农户受灾度、抵御冲击能力和风险敏感度,同时构建农户生计脆弱性评价指标体系测算农户的生计脆弱性值,并在此基础上比较分析不同类型、地区和家庭结构的农户生计脆弱性,最后实证分析农户生计脆弱性的影响因素,并提出相应的政策建议。研究结果表明:(1)受灾度描述分析显示,自然灾害造成农户户均损失为12299.95元,仅有38户农户遭受市场风险,农户的平均大病经济成本为28547.67元,平均大病时间成本是202.76天,表明农户遭受的主要是自然风险和大病风险,特别是大病风险给家庭造成了严重的冲击;虽然农户遭受市场风险比较少,但是,一旦遭受,造成的损失极为严重。风险敏感度描述分析发现,农户对自然灾害和疾病风险比较敏感,风险敏感度指标值接近或超过2.5,其余的指标值低于2,相对来说不太敏感。(2)从整体来看,受灾度值、抵御冲击能力值、风险敏感度值和生计脆弱性值分别为0.153,0.244,0.206和-0.013,表明农户的抵御冲击能力要大于受灾度。生计脆弱性的比较分析显示,农业户、兼业户与非农业户的生计脆弱性值分别为-0.005、-0.007和-0.012,表明非农业户和兼业户的生计脆弱性值小于农业户;经济较发达地区和经济欠发达地区的生计脆弱性值分别为-0.011和-0.008,表明经济较发达地区的生计脆弱性值小于经济欠发达地区;核心家庭、复合家庭和其他家庭的生计脆弱性值分别为-0.019、-0.009和0.004,说明核心家庭和复合家庭的生计脆弱性值小于其他家庭。(3)农户生计脆弱性的影响因素实证分析表明,户主年龄、非农就业人数、农作物播种面积和地区虚拟变量对农户的生计脆弱性有显著的影响,其中,户主年龄对农户生计脆弱性有正影响,达到5%的显著水平;非农就业人数在1%的显著水平对农户生计脆弱性有负影响;农作物播种面积对农户生计脆弱性有显著的正影响,达到5%的显著水平。
[Abstract]:Zhejiang Province, located on the southeast coast of China, has a relatively high level of economic development, but the regional differences are significant, especially in the vast mountainous areas located in the middle and southwest of China. Reducing the vulnerability of farmers' livelihoods, improving their livelihoods and achieving sustainable development of their livelihoods, It is not only of great practical significance to the sustainable development of social economy in mountainous areas and to the construction of "two rich" modern Zhejiang Province, Moreover, it is of strategic significance for the whole province to coordinate regional development and build a harmonious society. Based on the survey data of people's livelihood monitoring in four sample counties (cities) of Zhejiang Province, the paper describes and analyzes the social and economic development situation of farmers in the sample region. At the same time, the farmers' livelihood vulnerability evaluation index system is constructed to measure the farmers' livelihood vulnerability, and on the basis of this, the different types of farmers are compared and analyzed. Finally, the influencing factors of farmers' livelihood vulnerability are analyzed empirically, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The average loss of households caused by natural disasters is 12299.95 yuan, and only 38 households suffer market risks. The average economic cost of serious illness is 28547.67 yuan, and the average time cost of serious illness is 202.76 days. In particular, the risk of serious illness has caused a severe impact on families; although farmers suffer less from market risks, once they suffer, the losses caused are extremely serious. Farmers are more sensitive to natural disasters and disease risks. The risk sensitivity index values are close to or over 2.5, while the remaining values are less than 2, relatively less sensitive. The risk sensitivity value and livelihood vulnerability value were 0.153 0.244 0.206 and -0.013, respectively, which indicated that the impact resistance of farmers was greater than that of disaster, and the comparative analysis of livelihood vulnerability showed that agricultural households, The livelihood vulnerability values of both households and non-agricultural households were -0.005 ~ 0.007 and -0.012, respectively, indicating that the livelihood vulnerability of non-agricultural households and concurrent households was smaller than that of agricultural households. The livelihood vulnerability values of economically more developed regions and economically less developed regions were -0.011 and -0.008, respectively, indicating that the value of livelihood vulnerability in economically more developed regions was lower than that in economically less developed regions; The livelihood vulnerability values of composite households and other households were -0.019 ~ 0.009 and 0.004, respectively, indicating that the livelihood vulnerability of nuclear and composite households was lower than that of other households. The number of non-agricultural employment, crop planting area and regional virtual variables have significant effects on the livelihood vulnerability of farmers. Among them, the age of head of household has a positive impact on the livelihood vulnerability of farmers, reaching a significant level of 5%; The significant level of non-agricultural employment in 1% had a negative impact on the livelihood vulnerability of farmers, and the crop planting area had a significant positive impact on the livelihood vulnerability of farmers, reaching a significant level of 5%.
【学位授予单位】：浙江农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.8

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