城乡消费差异和农村内部消费差异的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 13:06

本文选题：城乡家庭消费　切入点：消费差异　出处：《成都理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放30多年,我国经济以平均8%的高速发展,取得了丰硕的成果。随着市场经济的不断深化,长期依靠投资和出口作为增长动力的中国经济渐露疲态,作为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,消费一跃成为我国经济持续增长的新动力。然而,多年的城乡分割形态下,劳动力、资金以及信息呈现偏向城镇的单向流动,使得制度性的二元结构逐渐演化成收入、保障、城乡基础设施及公共服务等市场性的二元结构,城乡消费差异日渐严重。作为经济增长的新源泉,消费所体现的内需不足引起了政府的高度重视;作为城乡居民发展不公平的直观体现,城乡消费二元化也日益受到社会各界的关注。从社会稳定的角度看,缩小城乡消费差异有助于提高农村居民的福利水平,实现社会范围内的公平正义,增强居民的幸福度从而维持社会稳定;从经济发展的思路讲,提升农村居民的消费水平进而消灭城乡消费二元化,有助于释放内需,消耗国内过剩产能,带动经济的再次增长。因此,对于城乡消费差异以及农村内部消费差异的研究具有重要的现实意义和政策含义。本文从城乡二元化的角度,基于CHFS2011年全国调查得到的微观数据①,采用分位数回归方法较为详细地分析了城乡家庭之间以及农村内部消费差异的影响因素。在消费差异的诸多影响因素中,本文重点考察了收入、教育、资产、年龄、社会保障的贡献大小,证实了隐性二元化的存在,得到了隐性因素对城乡消费差异的贡献率。文章共分为6个章节。遵照观察现象——研究文献——提出疑问——解决问题的思路对城乡消费的差异进行分析。各章内容安排如下:第一章首先介绍了研究背景,采用宏观与微观数据对城乡消费水平进行总体对比进而引出本文的研究对象,接着对本文的研究意义、行文思路、逻辑框架、实证方法和主要创新点进行了详细说明。第二章对国内外相关理论和文献进行梳理。首先介绍了西方经济学中消费理论的发展,接着分三部分对国内外研究成果进行整理和小结。第一部分根据经济学消费理论的演化,详细介绍了各个阶段国内学者的重点研究内容及研究方法。在第二部分对国外学者的代表性成果进行评述。第三部分对国内外研究的成果和不足进行总结,结合中国特色的城乡环境和制度安排,将社会普遍关注的二元化分解为“显性”和“隐性”两部分,给出隐性二元化的定义,并提出本文的研究问题。第三章分为实证模型和数据说明两部分。第一部分详细阐述了分位数回归模型以及Oaxaca-Blinder分解的原理,进一步引入反事实分布构造分位数分解模型。第二部分介绍本文选用的微观数据,并针对以前研究中数据处理的不足,进行本文数据处理的说明。第四章根据模型设定对城乡消费和选定的解释变量进行回归和消费差异的分解。分位数回归结果测算出流动性约束和不确定性对于城乡消费差异的具体影响,并验证了消费的周期性特征。分解结果给出了显性二元化和隐形二元化的作用。第五章单独对农村内部消费进行研究。对城乡消费差异产生影响的变量均纳入考察范围,检验其是否也是农村内部消费差异的成因。第六章对全文的研究内容和结论进行了总结,阐述了结论包含的政策含义,并针对结论提出相应的建议。本文的主要结论如下:1.不论是城乡之间还是农村内部,现期收入、社会保障、教育水平和资产,都是决定消费行为的主要因素,印证了消费函数中流动性约束、不确定性、持久收入对消费的作用。这些变量对处于中、低分布位置的农村家庭消费的影响更大。城乡家庭的消费均体现出生命周期特征。2.对城乡消费总差异进行横向与纵向的分解后发现,城乡消费差异主要来自显性因素的影响,隐性因素则是城乡消费差异变化的原因。城乡家庭的消费总差异中70.31%来源于“显性因素”,29.69%来源于“隐性因素”。随着消费层次上升,差异不断减小,其下降的主要原因是农村家庭受到来自城乡消费环境、消费发展阶段、消费观念及习惯等“隐性因素”的影响在不断减弱。3.针对城乡消费差异的分析结果,本文给出了缩小城乡消费差异的几点建议。一是借力现阶段土地改革的东风,盘活农民的土地资产,以增加其财产性收入;二是着力加大农村居民的基本社会保障的广度、保障深度以及直接农业补贴,以提高农民的转移性收入;三是倡导农村居民参加职业教育,鼓励进入高等教育,从预期工作年限和薪资水平两方面加强农民的收入预期,以提高其工资性收入。此外,在城镇化建设中对农村地区进行物质改造和意识灌输以提升农村家庭的消费环境、消费观念、消费发展阶段,有助于化解隐性二元化造成的农村消费障碍。
[Abstract]:30 years of reform and opening up, China's economic development at a high average of 8%, and achieved fruitful results. With the deepening of market economy, the long-term dependence on investment and exports as the growth momentum of the economy China gradually exposed weakness, as one of the three carriages to promote economic growth, consumption has become a new impetus to the sustained economic growth in China however, for many years the labor division between urban and rural areas, form, funds and information presented one-way flow of bias of the town, making two yuan of structure system gradually evolved into income guarantee, two yuan structure of urban and rural infrastructure and public services market, consumption difference between urban and rural areas have become increasingly serious. As a new source for economic growth, the reflect the consumption of insufficient domestic demand has attracted great attention of the government; as the development of urban and rural residents do not directly reflect the fair, urban and rural consumption of two yuan has also been a concern in the community. From the agency Stable point of view, narrowing the differences between urban and rural consumption helps to improve rural residents' welfare level, to achieve fairness and justice in the society, enhance people's well-being so as to maintain social stability; from the ideas of economic development, improve the consumption level of rural residents and eliminate urban and rural consumption of two yuan, helps to release domestic consumption, domestic overcapacity, promote economic growth again. Therefore, has the practical significance and important policy implications for the study of differences between urban and rural consumption and rural consumption. This paper from the internal differences between urban and rural areas two yuan of micro angle, the data obtained CHFS2011 national survey based on the quantile regression method were analyzed in detail. The influence factors of urban and rural households and rural consumption between internal differences. Among many factors affecting consumption difference, this paper focuses on the education, income, assets, age And the contribution of social security, confirmed the existence of hidden two yuan, with the recessive factors on the difference of urban and rural consumption rate is obtained. This paper is divided into 6 chapters. According to the observed phenomenon -- the difference of research ideas to solve the problem about urban and rural consumption were analyzed. Each chapter is as follows: the first chapter introduces the research background, the research object of urban and rural consumption level of the overall contrast and introduces the macro and micro data, then the significance of this study, the train of thought, logical framework, empirical method and main innovation points are discussed in detail. The second chapter of domestic and foreign related theories and literature review at first introduces the development of consumption theory in western economics, and then divided into three parts to the domestic and foreign research results, collation and summary. The first part according to the theory of Consumer Economics Evolution, introduces the key research contents and research methods of the various stages of the domestic scholars. The review of representative achievements of the second part of the foreign scholars. In the third part of the domestic and foreign research achievements and shortcomings are summarized, combined with the China characteristics of the urban and rural environment and institutional arrangements, will be two yuan of social attention into two part of "dominant" and "hidden", the definition of implicit two yuan, and put forward the research problem of this paper. The third chapter is divided into empirical model and data description of two parts. The first part elaborates the principle of quantile regression model and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, further introducing the counterfactual distribution structure of quantile decomposition model. The second part introduces the micro data in this paper, aiming at the shortcomings of previous research in data processing, the data processing shows. The fourth chapter set the model according to the city Rural consumption and the explanatory variables selected by regression decomposition and consumption differences. Quantile regression results to calculate the specific impact of liquidity constraints and uncertainty for the consumption difference between urban and rural areas, and verify the cyclical characteristics of consumption. The decomposition results are given two yuan and the dominant role of the invisible two yuan. The fifth chapter separately study for internal consumption in rural areas. Impact on the difference of urban and rural consumption variables are included in the scope of the study, whether it is internal inspection causes of rural consumption differences. In the sixth chapter, research contents and conclusions of this dissertation is summarized and the conclusion expounds the policy implications contained, and put forward the corresponding suggestions according to the conclusion. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows 1.: whether it is between urban and rural areas and rural areas, income, social security, education level and assets are the main factors determining consumer behavior, confirms the consumption function Liquidity constraints, the number of uncertainties, lasting effect of income on consumption. These variables in a low position, the distribution of rural household consumption more effect. Urban and rural household consumption are reflected in the life cycle of.2. of total consumption in urban and rural areas between the horizontal and vertical decomposition that influence the consumption difference between urban and rural areas mainly from the dominant factors, recessive factor is the reasons for the change of consumption difference between urban and rural areas. The total consumption difference between urban and rural families in 70.31% from the "dominant factor", 29.69% from the hidden factors. With the consumption level rise, the difference decreases, the main reason is the decline in rural households from urban and rural consumption environment. The development stage of consumption, consumer attitudes and habits of the hidden factors influence on the analysis results of.3. for weakening consumption difference between urban and rural areas, narrowing the differences between urban and rural consumption is given in this paper. Some suggestions. One is the land reform at the present stage of leveraging Dongfeng, revitalize the farmers' land assets, to increase the property income of rural residents; two is to increase the basic social security of the breadth, depth and direct protection of agricultural subsidies, to increase farmers' transfer income; three is to promote rural residents to participate in occupation encourage education into higher education, from two aspects of working age and salary levels expected to strengthen farmers' income is expected to increase its income. In addition, the material transformation and to enhance the consciousness of indoctrination of rural households consumption environment, consumption of rural areas in the process of urbanization, the development stage of consumption, help to resolve hidden two yuan caused by rural consumption barriers.

【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.8

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