吉林省缩减玉米生产路径研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 06:01

本文选题：供给侧改革　切入点：玉米生产　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：吉林省是我国的农业大省,突出做好粮食生产,保障粮食的有效供给是吉林省农业发展的重中之重。从目前吉林省的农业生产状况来看,吉林省的玉米生产过盛的状况比较突出,出现了玉米对其他作物的强烈替代。因此,在保障吉林省粮食供给总量平稳的基础上,设计合理的缩减玉米生产路径,因地制宜发展当地特色农作物,改善粮食供给的品种结构,对促进吉林省农业结构调整,加快农业现代化进程具有重要的现实意义。本文采用规范分析和实证研究相结合,定性研究与定量分析相结合的方法进行研究,整体结构是第一章绪论,主要介绍立题背景、国内外研究现状、研究内容与创新点、研究方法与技术路线;第二章相关概念界定及理论基础,第三章吉林省玉米作物发展的演进历程及现状;第四章吉林省玉米实证研究与产能过剩的原因分析;第五章吉林省缩减玉米生产路径设计研究;第六章促进吉林省缩减玉米生产路径运行的对策建议;第七章结论,对全文进行总结。本文结论:在供给侧结构性改革的大背景下,以比较优势理论、不平衡发展理论和大推动理论为基本理论的前提,首先对吉林省玉米作物的演进历程和目前吉林省玉米生产的状况进行了分析,将吉林省的玉米生产划分了三个阶段:第一阶段(1949-1969年)玉米作物与其它农作物平衡发展的阶段;第二阶段(1970-1999年)玉米作物快速增长阶段;第三阶段(2000-2014年)玉米生产相对过剩阶段,通过分析得出了目前吉林省玉米生产过剩的状况。再者,通过DEA模型实证分析,得出目前吉林省的玉米生产已处在最大规模的生产阶段,缩减玉米生产是未来农业发展的最优选择。结合吉林省的实际情况,设计出了吉林省缩减玉米生产的可行性路径,设计出的路径是:东部地区大力发展经济作物;中部地区构建专属的玉米生产区;西部地区种植杂粮、杂豆发展畜牧业。并指出需要在政策、资金、技术、市场、保险等方面给予支持,利用政策引导,市场推动,资金、技术提供支持,保险作为保障。最后就促进吉林省缩减玉米生产路径运行给出了相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:Jilin Province is a big agricultural province in our country. It is the top priority of agricultural development in Jilin Province to give prominence to grain production and ensure the effective supply of grain. Judging from the current situation of agricultural production in Jilin Province, The situation of excessive corn production in Jilin Province is quite prominent, and there is a strong substitution of corn for other crops. Therefore, on the basis of ensuring the stable total grain supply in Jilin Province, we should design a reasonable way to reduce maize production. It is of great practical significance to develop local characteristic crops according to local conditions and to improve the variety structure of grain supply, which is of great practical significance in promoting the adjustment of agricultural structure in Jilin Province and speeding up the process of agricultural modernization. The whole structure is the introduction of the first chapter, which mainly introduces the background of the topic, the current research situation at home and abroad, the research content and innovation, the research method and the technical route; The second chapter defines the related concepts and the theoretical basis, the third chapter, the evolution process and current situation of maize crop development in Jilin Province, the 4th chapter of Jilin Province corn empirical research and analysis of the causes of excess capacity; Chapter 5th studies on the design of reduced maize production paths in Jilin Province; chapter 6th on countermeasures and suggestions to promote the operation of reduced maize production paths in Jilin Province; chapter 7th on the conclusion of summing up the full text; the conclusion of this paper: under the background of supply-side structural reform, Based on the theory of comparative advantage, the theory of unbalanced development and the theory of big push, the evolution of maize crops in Jilin Province and the current situation of maize production in Jilin Province were analyzed. The maize production in Jilin Province is divided into three stages: the first stage is the stage of balanced development between maize crops and other crops, the second stage is the stage of rapid growth of maize crops from 1970-1999; The third stage (2000-2014) corn production relative surplus stage, through the analysis has obtained the present Jilin Province corn production surplus situation. Moreover, through the DEA model empirical analysis, It is concluded that the maize production in Jilin Province is already in the largest production stage at present, and reducing maize production is the best choice for future agricultural development. According to the actual situation in Jilin Province, the feasible path of reducing maize production in Jilin Province is designed. The paths designed are: developing cash crops vigorously in the eastern region; constructing exclusive corn production areas in the central region; planting miscellaneous grains and developing animal husbandry in the western region; and pointing out the need for policies, funds, technology, and markets. Insurance and other aspects of support, use of policy guidance, market promotion, capital, technology to provide support, insurance as a guarantee. Finally, to promote the reduction of maize production path operation in Jilin Province to give the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11

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