贵州省城镇居民贫困变动的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-09 14:06

本文选题：贫困线　切入点：贫困指数　出处：《贵州财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：配合着体制转轨与经济转型,我国自上世纪70年代末就开始进行了大规模的、有计划的扶贫工作,现在看来,我国所取得的成就是巨大的,主要体现是农村贫困人口数量的大幅度减少。但是,城镇贫困在进入新世纪之后,由于经济体制改革,和针对城乡二元结构的制度改革,逐渐成为一个社会问题。尤其自新世纪以来,我国城镇化速度加快,城市建设的大幅向外扩张,导致失地农民数量上升。农民工涌入城市速度加快,再加上原城镇下岗人员、新生劳动力的就业这些问题的合力,导致新贫困群体的产生,使城镇贫困问题复杂化,城镇贫困成因多样化。根据2010年的统计年鉴数据显示,我国城镇贫困人口总数已为5000万人,并有逐年加速的趋势。但是我国城镇贫困相对于农村贫困问题重视度不高,关注度不大,尤其是在研究城镇贫困人口问题这一领域。相对于其他大部分省份而言,贵州省经济发展相对落后,城镇贫困问题相对更加严重,所以本文基于当前贵州省经济的发展状况,通过运用普遍适用的贫困线计算方法和贫困测度方法,和FGT方法,对贵州省贫困情况进行实证分析,努力做到能够全面掌握贵州省贫困现状。在此基础上,努力构建符合贵州省其自身特点的反贫困策略,科学合理的减少贵州省城镇贫困,为贵州省经济发展与腾飞减少阻力。开始文章介绍了其写作背景和文献综述,详细叙述了国内外发展历程与现状。然后,说明文章的创新与不足。并在其后进行了深刻的探讨贫困含义,并把贫困进行了类别划分,然后介绍并运用ELES测算了贵州省城镇居民贫困线,,在此基础上,通过对历年贵州省统计年鉴的整理,计算了GQ模型与BETA模型下的洛伦兹曲线,并通过比较选定利用BETA模型作为计算基尼系数的基础,然后运用FGT模型计算了贵州省城镇居民贫困指数,对贵州省贫困状况有了大致了解。然后,对贵州省贫困指数进行了分解与弹性分析,在对贫困指数进行弹性分析时,采用了Kakwani提出的贫困分解方法,并得出了大体结论,即经济增长对于贫困指数产生负效应,而收入分配(基尼系数)对于贫困指数的变动产生正效应。且相对于经济效用的绝对值,收入分配的正效应要更大一些。以上结果使我们看到,经济增长可以减少贫困,但是减贫工作还要依赖于收入分配,生活成本等方面。最终,根据前面的理论分析与实证分析所得出的贵州省的贫困的具体状况,提出了具体的措施,实施就业优先政策,创造就业机会,减少失业冲击,改进完善分配机制,缩小收入差距,大力投资教育,提高发展能力与抗险能力,健全社会保障制度,减轻意外风险冲击,统筹城乡协调发展,防止贫困向城镇集中与构筑社会救助体系等具体措施,有效的缓解贵州省的城镇贫困现象,更好的促进贵州省经济的协调发展,更好的解决贵州省城镇贫困群体的民生问题。
[Abstract]:In line with the system transition and economic transformation, our country has been carrying out large-scale and planned poverty alleviation work since the end of the 1970s. Now, it seems that China has made great achievements.The main manifestation is that the number of poor people in rural areas has decreased by a large margin.However, after entering the new century, urban poverty has gradually become a social problem due to the reform of the economic system and the reform of the dual structure of urban and rural areas.Especially since the new century, the speed of urbanization in our country has been quickened, and the construction of cities has expanded substantially, leading to an increase in the number of land-losing farmers.The rapid influx of migrant workers into cities, combined with the combination of the problems of laid-off workers and the employment of freshmen, has led to the emergence of new poor groups, which has complicated the problems of urban poverty and diversified the causes of urban poverty.According to the statistical yearbook data in 2010, the total number of urban poor population in China has been 50 million, and there is a trend of accelerating year by year.However, relative to the rural poverty, the urban poverty in our country is not paid much attention to, especially in the field of studying the urban poor population.Compared with most other provinces, Guizhou is relatively backward in economic development, and the problem of urban poverty is more serious. Therefore, based on the current economic development of Guizhou Province,By using the commonly applicable poverty line calculation method, poverty measurement method and FGT method, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the poverty situation in Guizhou Province, and tries to grasp the poverty situation in Guizhou Province.On the basis of this, we should try hard to construct the anti-poverty strategy in accordance with the characteristics of Guizhou Province, reduce the poverty in Guizhou cities and towns scientifically and reasonably, and reduce the resistance for the economic development and take-off of Guizhou Province.At the beginning of this paper, the background and literature are introduced, and the development course and present situation at home and abroad are described in detail.Then, explain the innovation and insufficiency of the article.After that, it deeply discusses the meaning of poverty, classifies poverty, then introduces and uses ELES to calculate the poverty line of urban residents in Guizhou Province, and on this basis, through sorting out the statistical yearbooks of Guizhou Province over the years,The Lorentz curves of GQ model and BETA model are calculated, and the BETA model is chosen as the basis of calculating Gini coefficient. Then the poverty index of urban residents in Guizhou province is calculated by FGT model.I have a general understanding of the poverty situation in Guizhou Province.Then, the paper analyzes the poverty index of Guizhou Province by means of decomposition and elasticity analysis. In the elastic analysis of the poverty index, the poverty decomposition method proposed by Kakwani is adopted, and the general conclusion is drawn that economic growth has negative effect on the poverty index.Income distribution (Gini coefficient) has a positive effect on the change of poverty index.And the positive effect of income distribution is greater than the absolute value of economic utility.The results show that economic growth can reduce poverty, but poverty reduction depends on income distribution and the cost of living.Finally, according to the previous theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the specific situation of poverty in Guizhou Province, put forward specific measures to implement the employment priority policy, create employment opportunities, reduce unemployment shocks, improve the distribution mechanism.Such specific measures as narrowing the income gap, vigorously investing in education, improving the ability to develop and resist risks, improving the social security system, mitigating the impact of unexpected risks, coordinating urban and rural development, preventing poverty from centralizing into cities and towns and building a social assistance system, etc.Effectively alleviate the phenomenon of urban poverty in Guizhou Province, better promote the coordinated development of Guizhou economy, better solve the livelihood of urban poor groups in Guizhou Province.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.8

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