宁夏近18年来耕地面积动态变化及驱动力分析

发布时间：2018-04-15 11:15

本文选题：耕地面积 + 动态变化　；参考：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年08期

【摘要】：[目的]以宁夏耕地面积为研究对象,分析耕地总面积、人均耕地面积及耕地利用程度动态变化趋势,并从经济、社会、人口、技术等方面选取影响耕地面积变化的12个驱动因子进行研究,分析各驱动因子对宁夏耕地面积的影响。[方法]选取1997~2014年宁夏耕地面积相关数据,首先运用数理统计法分析耕地面积变化趋势,然后采用主成分分析法对影响耕地面积变化的驱动因子进行分析和归纳。[结果]近18年来宁夏总耕地面积波动较大,呈现出先缓慢增加,后急剧减少,再快速增加,最后保持平稳的变化态势;虽然宁夏人均耕地面积高于全国水平,但是仍逐年下降且下降速度较快;耕地复种指数呈上升趋势,表明宁夏耕地利用率在逐年提高,但总体利用水平依然较低;经济发展水平、人口压力、农业生产技术以及农业结构调整是影响宁夏耕地面积变化的主要驱动力。[结论]宁夏耕地面积变化明显且受经济、人口、技术水平等因素影响较大。
[Abstract]:[objective] to analyze the dynamic change trend of cultivated land area, per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land use degree in Ningxia, and to analyze the economic, social and population trends.The effects of 12 driving factors on the cultivated land area in Ningxia were studied in terms of technology and so on, and the effects of each driving factor on the cultivated land area in Ningxia were analyzed.[methods] based on the relative data of cultivated land area in Ningxia from 1997 to 2014, the change trend of cultivated land area was analyzed by mathematical statistics method, and then the driving factors which affected the change of cultivated land area were analyzed and summarized by principal component analysis method.[results] over the past 18 years, the total cultivated land area in Ningxia has fluctuated greatly, showing a slow increase first, then a sharp decrease, then a rapid increase, and finally maintaining a steady trend of change, although the per capita cultivated land area in Ningxia is higher than the national level.However, the rate of decline is still decreasing year by year, and the rate of decline is fast. The index of multiple cropping of cultivated land is on the rise, indicating that the utilization rate of cultivated land in Ningxia is increasing year by year, but the overall utilization level is still low, the level of economic development, population pressure,Agricultural production technology and agricultural structure adjustment are the main driving forces affecting the change of cultivated land area in Ningxia.[conclusion] the change of cultivated land area in Ningxia is obviously influenced by economy, population and technology level.
【作者单位】：宁夏农林科学院农业资源与环境研究所;
【基金】：宁夏回族自治区重点科技项目“宁夏耕地可持续利用与农田生产力提升技术研究应用”(2016-2020)
【分类号】：F323.211

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