天津市农村金融对居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 22:23

本文选题：天津市 + 农村金融　；参考：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在经济发展"新常态"下,拉动经济增长的"三架马车"中投资和出口的动力双双减弱,而消费贡献率大幅度跃升,充分发挥经济增长稳定器的作用。我国农村人口众多,其消费份额却为数不多。在城市消费趋近饱和的情况下,开拓农村消费市场刻不容缓,而金融发展在影响居民消费方面扮演着重要角色。随着京津冀一体化进程加快,天津农村居民消费水平有了较大提升,消费支出结构也发生了相应变化。从金融角度研究天津市农村居民消费,对于激活农村金融市场,提高居民收入水平,拉动农村消费,促进全市经济增长具有重要的现实意义。本文首先对国内外学者对农村金融与农村消费的相关研究进行综述,其次梳理回顾农村金融理论及消费理论,阐述农村居民消费对经济增长的贡献,进而剖析农村金融对居民消费的影响路径,认为农村金融可通过提高农村收入水平、改变保守的消费思想、改善消费环境三种途径来支持农村居民消费。在理论分析基础上,立足于天津市农村,从金融规模、金融效率和金融结构三方面对其金融发展现状进行分析,从消费总量、消费水平和消费结构三方面对其居民消费情况进行剖析。在此基础上,选取1984-2014年数据指标,建立VAR模型,从金融规模和金融效率两方面实证探究天津农村金融对居民消费水平及消费结构的影响。现状分析和实证结论综合表明,天津农村居民消费热情高涨,农村消费市场正在崛起且潜力巨大,而与此同时,农村金融发展水平却有待提升,金融规模不断扩大但有一定滞后性,金融结构内存在支农不足问题,金融效率低下而对消费作用较为微弱。由此可见,目前天津市农村金融发展水平并不能与攀升的消费需求相匹配,对此本文从促进农村居民增收、发展消费信贷、优化信贷管理制度、改善消费环境四个方面来提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the "new normal" of economic development, the power of investment and export in the "three carriages" of economic growth has been weakened, and the contribution rate of consumption is greatly increased, and the role of economic growth stabilizer is fully played. China's rural population is large and its consumption share is not much. In the case of urban consumption reaching saturation, the rural consumption market is opened up. There is no delay in the field, and the financial development plays an important role in affecting the consumption of residents. With the acceleration of the integration process of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the consumption level of rural residents in Tianjin has been greatly improved and the consumption expenditure structure has changed accordingly. From the financial point of view, the consumption of rural residents in the rural areas of Tianjin is studied, and the rural financial market will be activated to improve the population. The income level of the people, stimulating the rural consumption and promoting the economic growth of the city have important practical significance. Firstly, this article reviews the relevant research on rural finance and rural consumption by domestic and foreign scholars, and then reviews and reviews the rural financial theory and consumption theory, expounds the contribution of rural residents to the economic growth, and then analyzes the rural gold. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the rural finance can support rural residents' consumption by improving the rural income level, changing the conservative consumption thought and improving the consumption environment in three ways. Based on the theoretical analysis, it is based on the financial scale, financial efficiency and financial structure in the three aspects of the financial scale, financial efficiency and financial structure in Tianjin. The analysis is carried out from three aspects of total consumption, consumption level and consumption structure. On this basis, the 1984-2014 year data index is selected to establish VAR model, and the impact of Rural Finance on the consumption level and consumption structure of Tianjin is empirically explored from two aspects of financial scale and financial efficiency. The conclusion of the evidence shows that the consumption enthusiasm of rural residents in Tianjin is rising, the rural consumer market is rising and the potential is huge. At the same time, the level of rural financial development needs to be promoted, the financial scale is expanding but there is a certain lag. The financial structure is weak in the financial efficiency, and the effect of the financial efficiency is weak. It can be seen that the current level of rural financial development in Tianjin can not match the rising consumption demand. This paper proposes policy suggestions from four aspects: promoting rural residents' increasing income, developing consumer credit, optimizing credit management system and improving consumption environment.

【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.35;F323.8

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