农户气候变化适应性决策对农业产出的影响效应——以陕西苹果种植户为例

发布时间：2018-04-26 18:40

本文选题：适应性决策 + 农业产出　；参考：《中国农村经济》2017年03期

【摘要】：本文通过构建农户气候变化适应性决策对农业产出与产出风险影响的理论模型,利用陕西省8个苹果基地县660个苹果种植户的实地调查数据,评估了农户的农业产出风险,并采用内生转换模型分析了农户气候变化适应性决策对农业产出与产出风险的影响效应。结果表明:38.03%的样本农户采用覆膜、人工种草、铺秸秆、灌溉等措施适应气候变化;农户气候变化适应性决策能够增加农业产出,降低农业产出风险。基于反事实假设,采用适应措施的农户若未采用相应的适应措施,其亩均产出将下降3.72%,产出风险将增加107%;未采用适应措施的农户若采用相应的适应措施,其亩均产出将增加5.54%,产出风险将下降19.64%。降水量增加、户主受教育年限、参加合作组织及村庄提供适应措施信息服务对农户气候变化适应性决策有正向影响,而果树树龄对农户气候变化适应性决策有负向影响。
[Abstract]:Based on the theoretical model of the impact of climate change adaptive decision on agricultural output and output risk, this paper evaluates the agricultural output risk of farmers by using the field investigation data of 660 apple growers in 8 apple base counties in Shaanxi Province. The effects of adaptive decision making on agricultural output and output risk were analyzed by using endogenous transformation model. The results showed that 38.03% of the sample farmers adopted plastic mulching, artificial recommendation, straw spreading, irrigation and other measures to adapt to climate change, and the decision of adaptation to climate change of farmers could increase agricultural output and reduce the risk of agricultural output. Based on the counterfactual assumption, if the farmers adopting adaptation measures do not adopt corresponding adaptation measures, their average output per mu will decrease by 3.72and the output risk will increase by 1077.If the farmers who do not adopt adaptation measures adopt the corresponding adaptation measures, The output per mu will increase by 5.54 and the output risk will decrease by 19.64. The increase of precipitation, the years of education for heads of households, the participation of cooperative organizations and villages in providing information services on adaptation measures had a positive impact on farmers' climate change adaptation decisions, while the age of fruit trees had a negative impact on farmers' climate change adaptation decisions.
【作者单位】：西北农林科技大学经济管理学院;西北农林科技大学西部农村发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家科技重点项目“中国苹果产业经济发展研究”(编号:CARS-28)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F326.13;S162

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