长三角地区土地城市化驱动因子研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 16:15

本文选题：土地城市化 + 驱动因子　；参考：《华中科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,我国城市化的一个明显特征就是城市土地规模的迅速扩充,即出现土地城市化发展过快的问题。长三角地区经济发达,土地城市化演进的速度高于全国平均数值。2004年-2012年,长三角地区城市建成区面积从3347km2上升为5247 km2,年均复合增长率达5.8%。这一期间,长三角地区的土地城市化率也从7.42%上升到了11.23%。基于此,哪些驱动因子促进了长三角地区土地城市化快速发展便成为了一个十分值得关注的问题,本文将通过定性分析和实证研究相结合的方法,对长三角地区土地城市化的驱动因子展开研究。首先,本文对土地城市化的内涵进行了界定,给出了测算土地城市化水平的计算方法,并测算了2004年-2012年长三角地区的土地城市化率,介绍了长三角地区土地城市化的基本变化趋势和现状。其次,基于“供给因素-需求因素”的分析框架,对长三角地区土地城市化的驱动因子进行了定性分析;并在此基础上,初步选择了16个驱动因子变量;随后利用主成分分析和相关分析对驱动因子进行筛选,得到的驱动因子有:土地出让收入、人均铺装道路面积、市辖区非农业人口数量、固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额、实际利用外资额、人均可支配收入等。再次,以STIRPAT模型为基础,构建基于面板数据的多元线性回归模型,开展了长三角地区土地城市化驱动因子作用分析。经模型优化之后,发现社会消费品零售总额、人口增长、固定资产投资、外资投入这四个因素能够最大程度地解释长三角地区的土地城市化水平;且作用顺序依次是:社会消费品零售总额市辖区非农业人口数固定资产投资实际利用外资额。进一步,通过分区域的回归分析发现,土地城市化率较高的区域在研究期主要经历了消费驱动型土地城市化,而土地城市化率较低区域则是投资和消费双重驱动型。最后,从建设用地规模控制、城市土地集约利用、改变地方政府考核方式、摆脱土地财政依赖、因地制宜地拟定政策等方面为土地城市化调控提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, the rapid expansion of urban land scale is an obvious feature of urbanization in China, that is, the rapid development of land urbanization. The economy of Yangtze River Delta region is developed and the rate of land urbanization is higher than the national average. From 2004 to 2012, the area of urban built-up area in Yangtze River Delta region increased from 3347km2 to 5247 km ~ 2, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5.8%. During this period, the urbanization rate of land in Yangtze River Delta increased from 7.42% to 11.23%. Based on this, which driving factors promote the rapid development of land urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta region has become a very worthy of attention, this paper will combine qualitative analysis with empirical research method. The driving factors of land urbanization in Yangtze River Delta are studied. First of all, this paper defines the connotation of land urbanization, gives a calculation method to calculate the level of land urbanization, and calculates the land urbanization rate in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2004 to 2012. This paper introduces the basic changing trend and present situation of land urbanization in Yangtze River Delta region. Secondly, based on the analysis frame of "supply-demand factor", the paper qualitatively analyzes the driving factors of land urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta region, and on this basis, selects 16 driving factor variables preliminarily. Then the principal component analysis and correlation analysis are used to screen the driving factors. The driving factors are: land transfer income, per capita paved road area, the number of non-agricultural population, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods. Actual utilization of foreign capital, per capita disposable income and so on. Thirdly, based on the STIRPAT model, a multivariate linear regression model based on panel data is constructed to analyze the driving factors of land urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta region. After optimization of the model, it is found that the four factors of total retail sales of consumer goods, population growth, investment in fixed assets and foreign investment can explain the urbanization level of land in the Yangtze River Delta to the greatest extent. The order of action is as follows: total retail sales of consumer goods; the number of non-agricultural population in municipal areas; the number of fixed assets investment; the amount of foreign capital actually utilized. Furthermore, through the regression analysis of sub-regions, it is found that the regions with high land urbanization rate mainly experienced consumption-driven land urbanization in the research period, while the low land urbanization rate was both investment-driven and consumption-driven. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the regulation of land urbanization from the aspects of scale control of construction land, intensive utilization of urban land, changing the examination way of local government, getting rid of land financial dependence and formulating policies according to local conditions.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;F299.21

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