人口老龄化、人口城镇化与中国粮食安全——基于中国CGE模型的模拟

发布时间：2018-05-01 19:44

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 人口城镇化　；参考：《中南财经政法大学学报》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文在中国CGE模型中引入劳动力市场分割因素,兼顾生产要素的互补性和替代性关系,从供给和需求两个层面探讨了人口结构变迁对中国粮食安全的影响。研究发现,随着人口老龄化和人口城镇化的推进,中国粮食安全同时受到供给与需求层面的持久负面冲击:在所有模拟情景中,人口结构变迁均导致粮食价格上涨、进口依赖度增加以及人均粮食占有量下降;而仅当生产要素为替代关系且劳动力市场不存在分割时,人口结构变迁才会在长期内导致国内粮食产量增加。这表明在人口结构变迁的背景下,进一步消除劳动力在行业间流动的障碍是提升粮食安全的有效途径。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the labor market segmentation factor is introduced into the CGE model of China, and the complementary and alternative relations of production factors are taken into account. The effects of demographic changes on China's food security are discussed from the two aspects of supply and demand. The study found that, with the development of population aging and population urbanization, China's food security is subject to both supply and demand levels of persistent negative impact: in all simulation scenarios, population structure changes lead to higher food prices. The increase of import dependence and the decrease of grain per capita, and only when the factors of production are substitution and the labor market is not divided, the population structure changes will lead to the increase of domestic grain production in the long run. This indicates that under the background of population structure change, it is an effective way to improve food security to remove the barriers of labor mobility among industries.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“偏向型技术进步与农业要素收入分配:基于理论和实证的分析”(71503092);国家自然科学基金项目“极端气候下中国水资源对粮食安全影响的风险评估和弹性对策研究”(71461010701);国家自然科学基金项目“劳动力成本上升对农业生产的影响机理与实证研究”(71473100) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“生鲜农产品价格形成机制与政策研究——产业关联视角的结构路径与动态CGE模型分析”(14YJC790112)
【分类号】：C924.24;F326.11

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