基于海外耕地投资的中国粮食供给安全研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 22:05

本文选题：海外耕地投资 + 中国粮食供给安全　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年05期

【摘要】：海外耕地投资是中国企业走出去,参与国际投资合作,获取耕地资源的重要手段。海外耕地投资能够通过国际合作和粮食进口,增加中国粮食供给,对国内粮食市场产生重大影响。基于柯布道格拉斯生产函数模型,对粮食播种面积、粮食成灾面积、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、粮食生产劳动力人数、有效灌溉面积、农业产品生产价格指数、农膜施用量、化肥施用折纯量、农药施用量等10个因素进行模型参数筛选,拟合中国粮食总产量关于粮食产量影响因子的函数关系,测算中国国内粮食生产总量;同时通过时间序列数据拟合出口粮、工业用粮、饲粮、种子粮以及粮食损耗的函数模型,测算中国国内粮食需求总量;在此基础上,通过情景分析法模拟不同情景下,中国在海外生产的粮食进入中国市场的比例,并以此作为影响中国粮食总产量的因子之一,构建关于中国粮食总供给的函数模型,分别测算不同情境中海外耕地投资生产的粮食对中国粮食供给安全的影响程度。研究结果表明,悲观情景和一般情境中,海外耕地投资生产的粮食对中国粮食安全的影响并不显著,乐观情境中中国海外耕地投资对中国粮食安全产生显著影响。进一步研究表明,当海外耕地投资粮食进口率超过75.3%时,海外耕地投资会对中国粮食供给安全产生显著影响。研究结论和建议:目前中国海外耕地投资对中国粮食安全的影响并不显著;中国的海外耕地投资能够直接或间接增加中国粮食供给,并且供给量显著提高,存在提高中国粮食供给率,保障国家粮食安全的巨大潜力,决策部门需要重视海外耕地投资,引导海外耕地投资良性发展。
[Abstract]:Overseas cultivated land investment is an important means for Chinese enterprises to go out, participate in international investment cooperation and acquire cultivated land resources. Overseas cultivated land investment can increase China's grain supply through international cooperation and grain import, which has a significant impact on the domestic grain market. Based on Cobb Douglas production function model, the total power of agricultural machinery, rural electricity consumption, population of grain production labor force, effective irrigation area, price index of agricultural product production, were calculated for grain sown area, grain disaster area, agricultural machinery total power, rural electricity consumption, grain production labor force, effective irrigation area, agricultural product production price index, 10 factors, such as agricultural film application rate, chemical fertilizer application rate and pesticide application amount, were selected to fit the functional relationship between total grain yield and grain yield, and to calculate the total grain production in China. At the same time, using time series data to fit the functional model of export grain, industrial grain, forage, seed grain and grain loss, to calculate the total grain demand in China, and on this basis, to simulate the different scenarios by scenario analysis. The proportion of grain produced overseas by China entering the Chinese market, and as one of the factors affecting the total grain production in China, a functional model of China's total grain supply is constructed. The effects of overseas cultivated land investment and grain production on China's grain supply security were measured respectively. The results show that in the pessimistic scenario and the general situation, the effect of overseas cultivated land investment on China's food security is not significant, and in the optimistic situation, China's overseas cultivated land investment has a significant impact on China's food security. Further research shows that when the grain import rate of overseas cultivated land investment exceeds 75.3 percent, the investment of overseas cultivated land will have a significant impact on the food supply security of China. Research conclusions and recommendations: at present, the impact of China's overseas arable land investment on China's food security is not significant; China's overseas arable land investment can directly or indirectly increase China's grain supply, and the supply volume is significantly increased. There is a great potential to improve China's grain supply rate and ensure national food security. The policy-making departments need to attach importance to the investment of overseas arable land and guide the investment of overseas cultivated land to develop healthily.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学公共管理学院;华中师范大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于国内外粮食市场联动效应的海外耕地资源利用方式及其对中国粮食安全的影响研究”(批准号:41371522)
【分类号】：F326.11

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