广西土地集约利用态势研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 20:16

本文选题：土地集约利用态势 + 主成分分析　；参考：《广西师范学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：城乡一体化是我国发展的重点,这是工业化、城镇化、农业现代化发展到一定阶段的必然要求,是国家现代化的重要标志。但是,在发展中也出现了一定的问题,如:城市建设用地面积扩张过快、耕地数量不断减少,城市建设用地效益低下,这都与我国构建最严格的节约用地制度相悖。如何缓解土地供需矛盾?如何控制城市建设用地扩张过快?如何改变土地粗放利用?这是进行城市土地集约利用研究需要解决的问题。论文在分析影响土地集约利用因素的基础上,根据土地集约利用评价指标选取的原则并筛选了14个指标,构建了广西土地集约利用的评价指标体系,利用主成分分析法测算了2006—2015年广西土地集约利用度,并运用灰色GM(1,1)模型和熵值法预测了广西2016—2020年土地集约利用度变化态势。主成分分析法测算表明,广西14个地级市中,2006—2015年十年间的广西土地集约利用度平均值空间分异明显,东南地区的土地集约利用度高于西北地区的土地集约利用度;南宁市年均土地集约利用度为81.48,在广西14个地级市中排在第一位,柳州市年均土地集约利用度为75.58,桂林市为66.85,梧州市为62.8,北海市为68.06,防城港市为60.78,钦州市为59.02,贵港市为55.93,玉林市为66.92,百色市为48.98,贺州市为50.73,河池市为48.39,来宾市为44.85,崇左市为43.57,在广西14个地级市中年均土地集约利用度最低。根据灰色GM(1,1)模型和熵值法两种预测方法得到2016—2020年土地集约利用度,测算结果表明:两种方法的五年平均集约度相差不大,相差范围在±3以内,且呈现出桂西地区㩳桂中地区㩳桂东地区㩳桂北地区㩳桂南地区。根据测算,2006—2020年广西土地集约利用度变化表现为如下特征,(1)从时间横向进行分析,广西14个地级市的土地集约利用度态势主要呈现两种发展趋势,即增加趋势和下降趋势。土地集约利用度(2006—2020年)十五年的平均增涨幅度较大的城市为梧州市和防城港市,增幅分别为1.26%、1%。土地集约利用度(2006—2020年)十五年的平均下降幅度较大的城市为河池市、贺州市,下降幅度分别为1.87%、1.71%。(2)从时间纵向进行分析:14个地级市在同一年的土地集约利用度各异,2006—2015年土地集约利用度最高的是南宁市,2006—2020年土地集约利用度最低的城市是崇左市。(3)土地集约利用度高低与选取的指标有直接的关系,本文选取了4个具有代表性的指标进行分析,分别是人均城市建设用地、地均社会消费品零售总额、污水处理率和宏观政策,四个指标对土地集约利用度的影响作用不同,人均城市建设用地指标与土地集约度呈负相关性,地均社会消费品零售总额、污水处理率和宏观政策与土地集约利用度呈正相关性,并进一步分析了14个地级市土地集约利用差异的原因。测算结果表明,广西土地集约利用中仍面临一系列问题,如土地集约利用结构和布局不尽合理;人口、GDP与用地变化不匹配;土地污染严重,生态环境受影响等。在此基础上提出了优化用地结构,提高土地利用效率;提高土地开发程度和土地利用效益;加强环境治理力度,优化生态系统等系列措施。
[Abstract]:The integration of urban and rural areas is the key point of our country's development. This is the inevitable requirement of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization to a certain stage. It is an important symbol of national modernization. However, some problems have appeared in the development, for example, the area of urban construction land expansion is too fast, the number of cultivated land is decreasing, and the efficiency of urban construction land is low, How to alleviate the contradiction between land supply and demand in China? How to alleviate the contradiction between land supply and demand? How to control the rapid expansion of urban construction land? How to change the extensive use of land? This is a problem to be solved in the study of intensive use of urban land. By using the principle of evaluation index selection and screening 14 indexes, the evaluation index system of land intensive use in Guangxi is constructed. The intensive use of land in Guangxi from 2006 to 2015 is calculated by principal component analysis, and the change trend of land intensive use degree in Guangxi from 2016 to 2020 is predicted by using the grey GM (1,1) model and entropy method. The analysis method shows that in the 14 cities of Guangxi, the average value of land intensive use of Guangxi in ten years from 2006 to 2015 is obviously different. The intensive use of land in the southeast is higher than the intensive use of land in the northwest; the annual land intensive use of Nanning is 81.48, and the first place in the 14 prefectural cities of Guangxi is the willow. The annual land intensive use of the city is 75.58, Guilin is 66.85, Wuzhou is 62.8, Beihai is 62.8, Beihai is 68.06, Fangchenggang is 60.78, Qinzhou is 59.02, Guigang City is 55.93, Yulin is 66.92, Baise is 48.98, Hezhou is 50.73, Hechi city is 48.39, Laibin City is 44.85, Chongzuo is 43.57, and middle age land in Guangxi cities Intensive utilization is the lowest. According to two forecasting methods of grey GM (1,1) model and entropy method, the intensive use of land from 2016 to 2020 is obtained. The calculation results show that the average intensity of five years of two methods has little difference, the range of difference is less than 3, and it presents the area of Guixi area? Guidong area? Guangxi North Guangxi area. From 2006 to 2020, the changes in the intensive use of land in Guangxi showed the following characteristics, (1) analysis from the time horizontally, and the intensive use of land in 14 cities in Guangxi mainly showed two trend of development, namely, increasing trend and declining trend. The urban land intensive use (2006 - 2020) increased the average increase of the city for fifteen years. For Wuzhou and Fangchenggang, the growth rate is 1.26% respectively. The urban land intensive use of 1%. (2006 - 2020), which has a greater average decline in fifteen years, is Hechi and Hezhou, the decline is 1.87%, and 1.71%. (2) is analyzed from the time lengthwise: the land intensive use of the 14 cities in the same year is different, and the land from 2006 to 2015. The highest intensive utilization degree is Nanning City, the city with the lowest land intensive use degree from 2006 to 2020 is Chongzuo. (3) there is a direct relationship between the level of intensive use of land and the selected indexes. This paper selects 4 representative indicators to analyze, respectively, the urban construction land per capita, the total retail total of social consumer goods and sewage. The effect of the four indexes on the intensive utilization of land is different. The per capita urban construction land use index is negatively correlated with the land intensive degree, the total retail total of social consumer goods, the sewage treatment rate and the macro policy are positively related to the intensive use of land, and the intensive land use of the 14 cities is further analyzed. The results show that the intensive use of land in Guangxi still faces a series of problems, such as the unreasonable structure and layout of land intensive use, the mismatch between the population, GDP and land use change, the serious land pollution and the influence of the ecological environment. On this basis, the optimized land use structure is proposed to improve the efficiency of land use and improve soil efficiency. Measures such as land development and land use efficiency, strengthening environmental control and optimizing ecosystem.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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