花生价格对农户生产决策与收益的影响分析——基于规模分化的视角

发布时间：2018-05-19 03:37

本文选题：经营规模 + 价格变化　；参考：《农业现代化研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：基于规模分化的视角,以花生为例,利用2011-2014年农户微观调研的面板数据,采用面板回归模型和综合指数分析模型,分析价格与生产决策及收益的关系,探讨花生价格对农户生产决策调整以及农户种植收益的影响。结果表明,花生价格与农户经营规模并不存在明显关系,说明花生价格是由市场决定的,并非由农户内生决定。花生价格对农户生产决策的影响与农户经营规模有关,并表现为倒"U"型关系,价格变化对小、中、大规模农户种植面积的影响程度分别为0.257、0.348和0.121。花生价格波动的价格效应对农户种植收益变动的贡献率也与农户经营规模有关,价格波动对中等规模农户种植收益变动的贡献率为64.63%,低于小规模和大规模农户的73.12%和78.27%。因此,要积极稳妥地推进适度规模经营,并充分考虑不同经营规模的差异,同时还要加强支持政策,发展农业保险。
[Abstract]:Based on the perspective of scale differentiation, taking peanut as an example, using panel data of household micro survey in 2011-2014, using panel regression model and comprehensive index analysis model, this paper analyzes the relationship between price and production decision and income. This paper discusses the effect of peanut price on farmers' production decision and farmers' income. The results show that there is no obvious relationship between peanut price and farmers' management scale, indicating that peanut price is determined by market, not by farmers' endogenous decision. The effect of peanut price on farmers' production decision is related to the scale of farmers' management, and shows the "U" type relationship. The effect of price change on small and middle scale farmers is 0.257 0.348 and 0.121 respectively. The contribution rate of price effect of peanut price fluctuation to the change of farmers' income is also related to the scale of farmers' management. The contribution rate of price fluctuation to the change of middle scale farmers' income is 64.63, which is lower than that of small scale and large scale farmers (73.12% and 78.27%). Therefore, we should actively and steadily promote moderate scale management, fully consider the difference of different management scale, at the same time, we should strengthen supporting policies and develop agricultural insurance.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD160) 国家现代农业(花生)产业技术体系-产业经济(CARS-13-09B)~~
【分类号】：F323.7;F326.12

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