经济新常态下云南农村新消费增长点的预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 06:47

本文选题：经济新常态 + 扩展线性模型　；参考：《楚雄师范学院学报》2016年09期

【摘要】：培育云南农村新的消费增长点有助于为农村新一轮的经济增长寻找出路。本文首先利用扩展线性模型研究云南农村八项消费与人均可支配收入间的关系,并利用ARIMA模型预测未来五年的人均可支配收入;在此基础上预测了云南农村未来八项消费,探寻了云南农村未来新的消费增长点。研究表明:食品、居住、交通通讯、医疗保健消费依然是未来几年云南农村消费的主要支撑点。
[Abstract]:Cultivating new consumption growth points in rural areas of Yunnan is helpful to find a way out for the new round of economic growth in rural areas. This paper first studies the relationship between the eight items of consumption and the per capita disposable income in rural areas of Yunnan Province by using the extended linear model, and forecasts the per capita disposable income in the next five years by using the ARIMA model, and then predicts the eight items of consumption in the rural areas of Yunnan Province in the future. Explored the Yunnan countryside future new consumption growth point. The research shows that food, housing, communication, health care consumption are still the main supporting points of rural consumption in Yunnan in the next few years.
【作者单位】：楚雄师范学院经济与管理学院;
【基金】：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目;项目编号:QN2015001 云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目;项目编号:2015Y437 楚雄师范学院科学研究基金项目;项目编号:13XJRC09
【分类号】：F323.8

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