基于随机需求的鲜活农产品供应链协调研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 05:28

本文选题：动态需求 + 收益共享契约　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：虽然近年来先进的技术使的农业现代化取得了跨越式发展,互联网技术保障了信息发布渠道的畅通、及时地发布市场上鲜活农产品供需状态以及相关鲜活农产品市场销售价格,但是由于鲜活农产品是一类特殊的不同于工业品,其生产周期较长、产量极易受到自然灾害和不利天气的影响、而且由于鲜活农产品自身的物理特性使其不能长期保存、远距离运输又会降低鲜活农产品到岸时的数量和新鲜度、销售季节后剩余鲜活农产品残余价值较低甚至为零,鲜活农产品的这些不能规避的不利因素都大大阻碍了农业结构调整和转型升级。针对我国当前种养殖业现状,文章在考虑由单一供应商和单一零售商组成的鲜活农产品供应链协调研究中,当市场需求变动和随机因子分布函数分别变动下如何设计相应的应对策略,以降低动态需求对鲜活农产品供应链收益的不利影响,实现协调鲜活农产品供应链的目的。首先,研究了市场需求分布函数变动时的鲜活农产品供应链协调。由于鲜活农产品供应链在原收益共享契约下处于协调状态,考虑扰动使得生产成本和市场需求同时发生变动,提出了改进的收益共享契约,用来在供应链各参与成员之间合理分配因扰动带来的销售风险或销售收益,实现鲜活农农产品供应链协调。通过建立收益函数模型,借助概率论等相关数学知识求解收益函数的最优解以此确定供应链收益共享契约相关参数,促使供应链各参与成员采取系统最优时的经营策略,并证明当扰动因素在一定范围内变动时收益共享契约对供应链协调具有一定的鲁棒性;而且当超出一定范围时,对原收益共享契约进行必要的改进仍然可以协调供应链。其次,研究了随机因子分布函数变动时的鲜活农产品供应链协调。基于鲜活农产品的新鲜度和损耗都对零售商期望收益产生影响,考虑市场需求与反应农产品质量的新鲜度和运输过程中产品损耗之间呈现一定的函数关系式,并设定一个随机因子用以反映市场需求变动。通过构建市场需求与新鲜度、损失率和随机因子之间的函数模型并引入库存因子,设计了一种与随机因子有关的收益共享契约,探讨了稳定情形下的最优库存因子,以及供应链各成员在系统协调下的最优决策。接着分析当随机因子分布函数受到突发事件影响发生扰动时,那么市场需求规模也会同时发生扰动,扰动下的供应链-在原收益共享契约下的协调被破坏,就需要提出一种改进的收益共享契约用以应对突发事件实现供应链的协调。最后,从市场需求分布函数和随机因子分布函数分别扰动出发,总结本文的研究内容和验证结果,不论是市场需求分布函数变动还是市场需求因随机因子分布函数变动而变动,收益共享契约对鲜活农产品供应链都具有一定的鲁棒性,而且改进的收益共享契约都能够实现供应链的协调应对。而且两种情形下都能够实现风险共担和收益共享,促进了供应链的稳定性,增强了鲜活农产品整体的竞争优势,提高了供应链各参与成员的收益。最后提出本文的研究不足以及接下来的工作方向。
[Abstract]:Although the advanced technology has made the rapid development of agricultural modernization in recent years, the Internet technology has guaranteed the unimpeded channel of information release, timely release the supply and demand of fresh agricultural products on the market and the market price of fresh agricultural products. However, the production of fresh agricultural products is a special kind of industrial product, which is different from industrial products. The production cycle is long, the yield is easily affected by natural disasters and unfavorable weather, and the physical properties of fresh agricultural products can not be preserved for a long time. Long distance transportation will reduce the number and freshness of the fresh agricultural products when they arrive, and the residual value of the remaining fresh agricultural products is low or even zero after the sale season. These unfavourable factors have greatly hindered the adjustment of agricultural structure and the transformation and upgrading. In view of the current situation of the breeding industry in China, the article considers how to design the supply chain of fresh agricultural products made up of a single supplier and a single retailer, when the change of market demand and the distribution function of the following factors are changed respectively. In order to reduce the adverse effects of dynamic demand on the supply chain income of fresh agricultural products and realize the purpose of coordinating the supply chain of fresh agricultural products, first, the supply chain coordination of fresh agricultural products is studied when the distribution function of market demand is changed. Considering that the disturbance makes the production cost and market demand change simultaneously, an improved income sharing contract is proposed, which is used to allocate the sales risk or the sales revenue caused by the disturbance among the members of the supply chain, and to realize the coordination of the supply chain of fresh agricultural and agricultural products. The optimal solution of knowledge solving return function determines the relevant parameters of the supply chain revenue sharing contract, prompting the members of the supply chain to take the optimal management strategy of the system, and prove that the revenue sharing contract has a definite robustness to the supply chain coordination when the disturbance factor changes in a certain range; and when it goes beyond a certain scope, The necessary improvement of the original income sharing contract can still coordinate the supply chain. Secondly, the supply chain coordination of fresh agricultural products is studied when the random factor distribution function is changed. The freshness and loss of fresh agricultural products have an impact on the expected return of the retailer, considering the market demand and the freshness and transportation of the quality of the agricultural products. In the course of the process, a certain function relation between product loss is presented, and a random factor is set to reflect the change of market demand. By constructing the function model between the market demand and freshness, the loss rate and the random factor and introducing the inventory factor, a revenue sharing contract related to the random factor is designed, and the stability situation is discussed. The optimal inventory factor under the shape and the optimal decision of each member of the supply chain under the system coordination. Then, when the stochastic factor distribution function is disturbed by the impact of the sudden event, the market demand scale will also be disturbed simultaneously. The supply chain under the disturbance under the original revenue sharing contract is destroyed. An improved revenue sharing contract is used to cope with the coordination of the supply chain. Finally, the research content and the verification results are summarized from the distribution function of the market demand and the random factor distribution function, and the change of the market demand distribution function is also the change of the distribution function of the market demand due to the random factor. The income sharing contract has a certain robustness to the fresh agricultural products supply chain, and the improved revenue sharing contract can achieve the coordinated response of the supply chain. Moreover, the two situations can realize the risk sharing and the benefit sharing, promote the stability of the supply chain and enhance the competitive advantage of the fresh agricultural products as a whole. The profit of each member of the supply chain is increased. Finally, the deficiency of the research and the direction of the next work are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.6

【参考文献】