基于成本传导能力视角的农产品价格上涨供给因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-29 17:23

本文选题：农产品价格 + 投入产出价格模型　；参考：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年来,国内农产品价格上涨显著,考虑农产品价格形成特点,影响农产品价格变动的因素有很多,其中,生产成本是影响农产品价格上涨的关键因素。农业生产成本通过多种渠道影响农产品价格,既包括直接作为农业投入影响农产品价格这一途径,也包括通过影响其他产业产出价格再作用到农产品价格之上这一间接方式。投入产出价格模型充分体现了各产业间的投入产出关系,是研究价格影响较为理想的模型。但是,在产业间相互联系的过程中,价格传递并非总是处于理想状态,通常情况下,由于受多种因素的影响,各产业价格对成本的传递存在一定的阻碍。为此,本文构建了考虑利润率与成本转嫁关联特征的成本传导能力指标,并将其与传统的投入产出价格模型相结合形成投入产出价格实际影响模型,用于研究农产品生产成本变动对农产品价格及物价水平的影响。本文在充分分析2005年以来我国农产品价格和生产成本现状的基础上,发现农产品生产成本在很大程度上助推了农产品价格的上涨。利用我国56部门的2007-2010年的相关价格数据分析得出农业及农产品加工业的成本传导能力在所有部门中处于中游水平,且成本传导能力指数与利润率变动数据的对比分析结果也较好地说明了文章所用模型的合理性。通过分析石油、劳动力和土地价格变动对农产品价格及物价整体水平的影响(包括直接影响、潜在影响和直接影响),最终研究表明,外部冲击对农产品价格的潜在影响程度要普遍大于实际影响和直接影响,且不同类型的冲击对不同类型农产品的价格影响传导路径并不一致。其中,劳动力价格上涨的综合价格影响最为显著,土地价格上涨的价格影响次之,石油价格上涨的价格影响相对较弱;植物纤维、小麦、蔬菜等行业受到的实际价格影响较大,水稻和油料作物所受潜在影响较大。据此,本文提出要加快农产品目标价格的建立,提高农业补贴标准,积极推进农业合作化道路,加大农业科技投入以促进农业现代化等政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the price of domestic agricultural products has increased significantly. Considering the characteristics of agricultural product price formation, there are many factors that affect the price change of agricultural products, among which, the production cost is the key factor affecting the price rise of agricultural products. The cost of agricultural production affects the price of agricultural products through a variety of channels, including the direct impact of agricultural inputs on the prices of agricultural products, and the indirect way of influencing the prices of other industries to influence the prices of agricultural products. The input-output price model fully reflects the input-output relationship among industries and is an ideal model to study the influence of price. However, in the process of interrelation between industries, price transfer is not always in an ideal state. Usually, due to the influence of many factors, the price of each industry has some obstacles to the transfer of cost. Therefore, this paper constructs a cost conductivity index which takes into account the correlation between profit margin and cost transfer, and combines it with the traditional input-output price model to form an input-output price actual influence model. It is used to study the effect of the change of agricultural production cost on the price and price level of agricultural products. Based on the full analysis of the current situation of agricultural product prices and production costs since 2005, this paper finds that the agricultural product production costs have contributed to the increase of agricultural products prices to a large extent. Based on the analysis of relevant price data from 2007 to 2010 in 56 sectors of our country, it is concluded that the cost conduction capacity of agriculture and agri-processing industry is in the middle of all sectors. The results of comparative analysis of cost conductivity index and profit margin change data also show the rationality of the model used in this paper. By analysing the effects of changes in oil, labor and land prices on the prices of agricultural products as a whole (including direct, potential and direct impacts), the final study shows that The potential impact of external shocks on agricultural products prices is generally greater than the actual impact and direct impact, and different types of shocks on different types of agricultural products price impact transmission path is not consistent. Among them, the comprehensive price impact of the rise in labor prices is the most significant, followed by the price impact of the land price rise, and the relatively weak impact of the oil price increase; the actual price impact on the vegetable fiber, wheat, vegetable and other industries is greater. The potential effects on rice and oil crops are greater. On the basis of this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as speeding up the establishment of the target price of agricultural products, raising the standard of agricultural subsidy, actively promoting the road of agricultural cooperation, increasing the input of agricultural science and technology to promote agricultural modernization, and so on.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.7

【相似文献】