产业融合视角下英国旅游业与农业互动发展的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 12:28

本文选题：旅游业 + 农业　；参考：《世界农业》2017年03期

【摘要】：基于1990—2015年英国旅游业和农业相关数据,构建了VAR模型,实证分析了产业融合视角下英国旅游业与农业之间的互动关系。结果表明:英国的旅游业与农业之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,农业增加值每增长1%,旅游收入将增长0.672 1%;入境游客每增长1%,旅游收入将增长1.025 6%;英国的旅游总收入与农业增加值之间存在双向的Granger因果关系,并且入境游客数量是旅游总收入和农业增加值的Granger原因,但是旅游总收入和农业增加值不是入境游客数量的Granger原因;英国旅游总收入的波动主要来源于入境旅游和自身波动的影响,农业增加值的波动受到入境旅游、农业自身和旅游收入的综合影响,说明英国的旅游业和农业已经实现了深度融合,两者之间的关联性较高。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of UK tourism and agriculture from 1990 to 2015, this paper constructs a VAR model and empirically analyzes the interaction between tourism and agriculture from the perspective of industrial convergence. The results show that there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between tourism and agriculture in Britain. For every increase in agricultural value added, tourism income will increase by 0.672 1Z; for every increase in inbound tourists, tourism income will increase by 1.025 66.There is a two-way Granger causality between total tourism income and agricultural added value in the United Kingdom. Moreover, the number of inbound tourists is the Granger cause of total tourism income and agricultural added value, but the total tourism income and agricultural added value are not the Granger reasons of the number of inbound tourists. The fluctuation of total tourism income in Britain mainly comes from the impact of inbound tourism and its own fluctuation. The fluctuation of agricultural added value is affected by the combination of inbound tourism, agriculture itself and tourism income. This shows that tourism and agriculture in Britain have achieved deep integration, the correlation between the two is relatively high.
【作者单位】：海南热带海洋学院旅游学院;北京邮电大学;
【基金】：海南省自然科学基金项目(20151008) 教育部人文社科资助项目(13YJC790082) 广州市社科规划青年项目(2016gzqn03)
【分类号】：F595.61;F356.1

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