基于地理加权回归模型的长江中游地区人均耕地面积变化影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-06-06 11:11

本文选题：长江中游地区 + 地理加权回归模型　；参考：《水土保持通报》2016年01期

【摘要】：[目的]利用GWR模型揭示长江中游地区人均耕地面积变化影响因素的空间异质性,为今后管理该区域耕地资源提供科学依据。[方法]在总结该地区人均耕地面积现状的基础上,分析人均耕地的Moran’s I指数,利用相关年份数据分析了最小二乘法(OLS)和地理加权回归方法(GWR)的差异,采用GWR模型对该区域各市人均耕地面积的影响因素进行分析。[结果](1)城镇化率对人均耕地的影响由正相关向负相关变化,影响程度增强,系数值空间差异较大;(2)人口增长率与人均耕地大部分地区呈负相关,局部地区呈正相关,影响程度减小,空间差异较大;(3)第一产业总产值比重与人均耕地大部分地区呈正相关,局部呈负相关,影响程度下降,空间差异较大;(4)粮食单产与人均耕地由负相关向正相关变化,影响程度增强。[结论]GWR比OLS更能反映影响因素的空间异质性,成功揭示了各因素对人均耕地的影响程度和区域差异。
[Abstract]:[objective] to reveal the spatial heterogeneity of the factors influencing the change of cultivated land area per capita in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River by using GWR model, and to provide scientific basis for the management of cultivated land resources in the region in the future. [methods] on the basis of summarizing the present situation of per capita cultivated land area in this area, the Moran's I index of per capita cultivated land was analyzed, and the difference between least square method and geographical weighted regression method was analyzed by using the data of relevant years. GWR model is used to analyze the influencing factors of per capita cultivated land area in each city in this region. [results] the influence of urbanization rate on per capita cultivated land changed from positive correlation to negative correlation, the degree of influence was increased, and the spatial difference of coefficient value was large. The population growth rate was negatively correlated with most areas of per capita cultivated land, and positively correlated with local areas. The proportion of the gross output value of the primary industry is positively correlated with the per capita cultivated land in most areas, and is negatively correlated with the extent of the decrease in the degree of influence. (4) the grain yield changed from negative to positive correlation with per capita cultivated land, and the influence degree was increased. [conclusion] GWR can reflect the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors better than OLS.
【作者单位】：武汉大学资源与环境科学学院;中国土地勘测规划院地政研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“我国地方政府土地出让竞争研究”(71403193) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(14YJC630216)
【分类号】：F323.211

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