中国奶业地理集中演化模式及其成因分析

发布时间：2018-06-16 09:05

本文选题：奶业地理集中模式 + 奶牛存栏　；参考：《农业现代化研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文利用1990-2015年中国奶业省际面板数据,借助相对熵值法考察了中国奶业空间分布特征,并引入动态面板模型实证了中国奶业空间分布的驱动因素。研究发现:1)1990年以来,中国奶业地理集中演化模式总体呈现"横向扩散"特征;2)区域层面看,华北和西北奶业呈现"横向扩散"模式,而大城市、东北和南方奶业凸显内部扩大模式;3)2011年中国奶业首现衰退恶化迹象,但华北、大城市和南方表现为横向扩散;4)从区域之间地理集中模式演化看,中国奶业消耗缩减模式存在区域之间梯度转移现象,其转移路径依次为"大城市、华北、东北、西北";而南方奶业表现出奶牛存栏持续增长的良好发展势头;5)计量模型结果表明,地区饲料供给,奶牛存栏一期滞后以及经济增长促进奶业集聚,而奶牛单产和人口规模递增驱使奶业扩散。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data of China's dairy industry from 1990 to 2015, this paper investigates the spatial distribution characteristics of dairy industry in China by using the relative entropy method, and introduces the dynamic panel model to demonstrate the driving factors of the spatial distribution of dairy industry in China. The study found that since 1990, the pattern of geographical concentration evolution of China's dairy industry has taken on the characteristics of "horizontal diffusion" in general.) at the regional level, the dairy industry in North and Northwest China is characterized by "horizontal diffusion", while in large cities, The Northeast and South Dairy Industry highlights the Internal expansion Model 3) China's dairy industry showed signs of deterioration for the first time in 2011, but in North China, Big cities and South China showed horizontal diffusion) from the point of view of the evolution of geographical concentration patterns between regions, The pattern of dairy industry consumption reduction in China has the phenomenon of gradient transfer between regions, and its transfer path is "Big cities, North China, Northeast China," The results of the econometric model show that the regional feed supply, the lag of the first period of the dairy cattle storage and the economic growth promote the agglomeration of the dairy industry. And dairy cow unit yield and population scale increase drive dairy industry to spread.
【作者单位】：内蒙古大学经济管理学院;长江师范学院财经学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71563036) 内蒙古自然科学基金(2014MS0702) 长江师范学院高层次人才引进科研启动项目(2017KYQD05)~~
【分类号】：F326.3

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